KOTOV.IN
RRTLMay 29, 12 AM UTC






Thank you Brook!!!

Replying to @marketminute @RealVision @maxwiethe
You are becoming a Real Vision sensation. Thanks for your insights.


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Some data on US VMT: Vehicle miles traveled by all vehicles on all interstate highways for May 4, 2020, ending May 10, 2020, increased 12% as compared to the previous week. Comparing to the same week of 2019, it represented a decrease of 29% ⁦


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We have a new daily update about the Iranian gasoline deliveries to Venezuela. We also address the speculation that has surfaced in regards to the Cuban-owned tanker in El Palito. 2020-05-28 Premium Live Blog:




The Times: UK seeks alliance to avoid reliance on Chinese tech – Reuters


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At least the Fed’s acknowledging the obvious. Wealth inequality is expanding. Now the next step is taking responsibility for their role in it:

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said the coronavirus pandemic is worsening U.S. inequality
(thread)



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I’M NOT CRYING YOU’RE CRYING

(thread)

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(Shalane is a Tar Heel, btw)

(thread)

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Y’ALL. I’m listening to on the podcast and she just said her 1-month old son’s middle name is Dean, after...you guessed it, legendary UNC bball coach Dean Smith.

(thread)



NAS100 is approaching the support line of a Support. It has touched this line numero... 73.05% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money




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EURUSD is quickly approaching the resistance line of a Channel Up. We expect either ... 73.05% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money


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More levels: 40 pivotal 35 key support 137.50 support-still has gap to 144.96 156 support Until it takes out 136 noise confirmed accumulation phase-but barely-and could be a reversal top




Dow Slashes Gains to End Lower on Fears U.S.-China Tensions Set to Turn Toxic




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Levels only today: S&P 500 ($SPY) Holding the 200 DMA and needs to continue to do so Russell 2000 ($IWM) 147.50 next big resistance 140 key support Dow ($DIA) 263 resistance with 250 support Nasdaq ($QQQ) 227 support to hold


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Elon Musk earns performance-based payout from , worth >$700mln. Will receive 1st tranche for keeping the comp’s mkt cap at $100bn along with other revenue milestones. A Tesla stockholder is challenging the compensation plan, alleging it is excessive.


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Oh, AFTER leaving the EU.

UK SEEKS TO FORGE ALLIANCE OF TEN DEMOCRACIES TO CREATE ALTERNATIVE SUPPLIERS OF 5G EQUIPMENT, OTHER TECHNOLOGIES TO AVOID RELYING ON CHINA -THE TIMES

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I’m not a fake crisis.

Replying to @Samir_Madani @chigrl @ZmansEnrgyBrain
No I don’t care about you’re fake crisis



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Dollar Tree CEO wonders how long coronavirus relief-driven demand can last


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Imagine people prejudging you because of nothing you did, but because they're ignorant and have preconceived opinions about others who are like you. Must suck.

It's a bad week to be an Amy Cooper

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Trump signs executive order targeting social-media companies after Twitter fact-checks him. Executive order will seek to limit broad liability protections provided to social-media companies under federal law.



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US Pres. Trump to hold China news conference on Friday, risk-off themes will be in play


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TEXAS VIRUS CASES JUMP 3.2%, ALMOST TWICE THE SEVEN-DAY AVERAGE -Bbg


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Suspect in custody after sucker-punching DC police officer who was attempting to enforce social distancing rules

[VIDEO]

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Osimertinib Ph3 ADAURA data as adjuvant therapy in EGFRm NSCLC DFS HR=0.21; p<0.0001 2-year DFS rate: 89% vs 53% placebo OS still immature For the first time an EGFR inhibitor worked in adjuvant setting, great news for lung cancer patients!


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Elon Musk earns first performance-based payout from Tesla, worth more than $700 million


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Valuations matter. From 1974 until the peak in 2000, the US large-caps produced one of the best historical returns — if not the best ever. Over that 26-year run, the index compounded at 17% plus. However, from the year 2000 until today, government bonds & Gold beat the market.


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the secret to extending the life of your toilet paper stockpile: healthy diet


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Wall St ends rally w/ tensions rising. Dow erased all gains and ends 0.6% lower as Trump plans Friday news conference on China, agenda unclear.


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Costco e-commerce up 32% that’s a shitload of toilet paper




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LMAO!

Replying to @marketminute
很好的分析

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WE ARE NOT HAPPY WITH CHINA - TRUMP


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The most obvious impending mistake is a failure of insist on the use of masks in reopened retail outlets and on public transport. Pretty much every country/US state that has successfully opened has insisted on this.

(thread)



e-commerce comps accelerating to 31.2% that’s a lot of bread makers

was a $30 stock at the lows in March. Trading at $78 AH following earnings.

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US Closing Prices: 25400.64 -0.58% 3029.73 -0.21% 9416.71 -0.27% 1400.67 -2.48% 28.59 +3.51%


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Questions =

Hypothesis: Answers are valuable, but questions are more valuable.



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Russia's economy contracts 12% year-on-year in April during coronavirus lockdown



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Fed's Kaplan sees global oil glut lasting well into 2021


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S&P cuts Rolls-Royce credit rating to junk Ironic



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Renault poised to announce 15,000 layoffs worldwide: union



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Trump set to order review of law that protects social media companies


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Williams-Sonoma beats by $0.69, beats on revs; Q1 comp sales +2.6%; declares dividend



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Virginia will remain in Phase 1 of reopening for at least another week, governor says


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Trump "feeling perfect" after completing hydroxychloroquine, White House says


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North Carolina reports one of its highest days of coronavirus-related deaths and hospitalizations


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The whole ‘people are going to forever leave big cities and telecommute from cheap suburbs’ strikes me as 1) being advanced by pundits who already live in suburbs (projection) and 2) the latest example of recency bias



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Beaches and lakes to reopen everywhere June 2 in France, prime minister says



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Turkey announces comprehensive reopening starting on June 1



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Italy's top professional football league Serie A to restart season on June 20



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Oh, they finally showed up in the system.

(thread)



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Costco prelim Q3 $1.89 vs $1.86 S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $36.45 bln vs $36.66 bln S&P Capital IQ Consensus Estimate


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BUT HOW WILL HE RULE THE WORLD THEN?

TRUMP SAYS TWITER SHOULD BE SHUT DOWN



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Zscaler beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY20 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus


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if Trump shuts down Twitter I'll be faxing all my tweets to



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Ulta Beauty misses by $2.06, misses on revs; Q1 comps -35.3%


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Protestors Criticized For Looting Businesses Without Forming Private Equity Firm First




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Veeva Systems beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY21 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus




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Marvell beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus




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Salesforce beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides JulQ EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY21 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus




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Okta beats by $0.10, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; guides FY21 EPS above consensus, revs in-line


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TRUMP SAYS TWITER SHOULD BE SHUT DOWN




Ollie’s Bargain Outlet beats by $0.15, beats on revs, comps down 3.3%




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While stores were temporarily closed, the Company's e-commerce business experienced significant growth in new customers of more than 50 percent. Gross profit, as a percentage of net sales, was 11 percent, decreasing from 34 percent for the same period in fiscal 2019




Nordstrom misses by $1.06, misses on revs


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Odds that the US election ruins twitter until November.

(thread)


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After a massive issuance of corporate bonds, BNP believes supply could fall drastically from here as equity issuance has become the cheaper option. With central banks buying massive amounts of corporate debt the outlook for the asset class continues to look attractive.


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Phase 3 BOSTON data mPFS: 13.93mo in SVd vs. 9.46mo in Vd HR=0.70; p=0.0075 ORR: 76.4% in SVd vs. 62.3% in Vd, p=0.0012


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Oops, jinxed it. 🙊

michael jordan hug GIF
We’re heading for the S&P 500’s first 4-day winning streak since February. OK, I see you, bulls.

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U.S. VIRUS CASES RISE 1.2%, IN LINE WITH PAST WEEK'S AVERAGE -Bbg



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China won't bend on HK Both sides are tremendously compromised commercially US reliance on China for supply chain, end sales, pharma, compromising tough stances…



Fed’s Kaplan: Downside risks to forecast remain without ramped-up testing


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81 Central Banks have cut rates in 2020...


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Go figure.

(thread)

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We are confident in a spectacular Q3 rebound. But we won't release our economic outlook because it looks terrible.


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I hope Trump appoints Kyle Bass as Ambassador to China tomorrow


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Hey Plato, Cicero, Seneca, Aurelius.... LOOK AT THE WORLD WE HAVE CREATED!

welcome to 2020

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This is a post... that is on Facebook... today 😮😬
(thread)

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welcome to 2020


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Today's market summary:

[VIDEO]

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Oh, China Sanctions


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Bar none the best annual free report written on just released today. If you own gold or are considering this report is a must.…

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Trump: I'll ban all imports from China forever. Powell: $100 trillion balance sheet by Christmas.

(thread)

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Fits with the times.

Protestors Criticized For Looting Businesses Without Forming Private Equity Firm First

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TRUMP SAYS THERE WILL BE A NEWS CONFERENCE ON CHINA FRIDAY


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China press conference vs Powell. Place your bets.

(thread)


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It's not every day you get to hear and talk about the Fed. But it is DEFINITELY not every day that the original "Buy Bitcoin" signs makes an appearance 😂 Huge thanks to for making this conversation possible. Listen below 👇

(thread)

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'Happy Friday'? SAYS HE WILL HOLD NEWS CONFERENCE ON FRIDAY



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(and original to boot!) * insanely jealous 😉🚀

We spoke with and about: 1) Inflation vs. Deflation 2) The Fiat Fiasco…
(thread)



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Easy to mistake current environment for 1970s and is much like , but he is right that this is really a ...

Trump is Hoover. Think again.

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Apparently at 3:15pm

(thread)

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US PRES TRUMP SAYS HE WILL SIGN EXECUTIVE ORDER ON SOCIAL MEDIA IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES


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TRUMP SAYS HE WILL HOLD NEWS CONFERENCE ON CHINA FRIDAY - Bbg


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If there is one piece of advice I’d give to my younger self or young people starting out... It would be not to “worry” so much. No one is really watching or judging you so don’t worry if your start up fails or if you lose your job. You’re young. Take more risks & go for it!


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On China TV

Michele Schneider on investment strategy in energy sector.

One of the first females on commodity trading floor, now trading education experts, Michele Schneider explains how to invest under the curr...

youtube.com


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If I had pick just one ☝🏼 life hack that changed my life for the better... Above everything else, it would be the positive habit of saving money. It changed everything for me & eventually it enabled me to live life on my own terms. I’ve visited over 70 countries & lived in 8.


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I just completed an hour 20 minutes live on . What an honor to have so many folks listening and asking unbelievable questions. And TY so much to the RV team for their gracious hosting-love you guys and Brian!


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Check:

German Car Supplier Zf Plans To Cut Up To 15,000 Jobs - Spiegel
(thread)


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WH adviser Kudlow: Hong Kong may need to be treated same as China with regards to tariffs


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this feels like the longest 4-day work week ever, maybe it's just me


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MARKET GAINS HALVED

[VIDEO]



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Like-minded!!!

Replying to @marketminute
Still selling for over-asking price here in the posh high dollar San Francisco suburbs (94566). This whole event has not played out how I'd thought. Nothing is…

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I would think so-just looking at where we live in NM-housing prices have barely budged, inventory low and new construction sitting empty now, will probably find buyers in the next 6 mos to year

Replying to @marketminute
Thx again. So it sounds like costs in the next 6 mos. could go up in more suburban areas and maybe down in urban areas?

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“Kicking & Screaming” was underrated

(thread)

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these are killer

Arsenal away kit for the next season
(thread)

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New York Gov. Cuomo says businesses may deny entry to those without face covering


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Hi Mike-TY! New home sales went up-new home construction fell-makes sense-But- new trend is 4 folks 2 move out of cities into rural areas-which could bring a boon to rural construction-supply chain issues are biggest factors-& raw materials rising in price if supply remains soft

Mish, I enjoyed your live broadcast on Real Vision just now. What are your thoughts on residential building costs over the next 6 months. I’m referring to prices of lumber, steel, trade labor, tile, flooring, etc. Thanks!

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Social Security funds could run out faster due to the coronavirus pandemic


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The extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits runs out in July


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Fed’s Williams says U.S. is not ‘anywhere near’ its limits to run up debt


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Very serious question: at group dinners does this mean everyone gets evenly split or itemized checks? If so, that could be bullish.

A man and a woman demonstrate dining under a plastic shield in a Paris restaurant on Wednesday, May 27, 2020. As restaurants in food-loving France prepare to reopen, some are investing in…



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Hey Steve-yes, looks good here-thanks for pointing that out-I might wait for it to clear the 10-DMA but then its off to 125 I figure with a good risk

Great interview on RV. Btw it was me who asked the ROKU question. That stock looks great here. 140 target

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We’re heading for the S&P 500’s first 4-day winning streak since February. OK, I see you, bulls.

[VIDEO]

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Jay Powell rehearsing his speech tomorrow.

Replying to @NorthmanTrader
Let's party the FED send money free everyone

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Glimmer optimism with Larry.

3:34
NEC Director Larry Kudlow says there are “some glimmers of hope” for the economy “amidst all the hardship and heartbreak.”

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Renault To Cut 15,000 Jobs Worldwide - Les Echos
(thread)


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testing resistance at 0.6660/80 area


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Just took a look at Goldman’s overnight note on the price cuts. What caught my eye was that they have revenues almost doubling in 2021(to $47B), yet with no real increase in capital employed at year-end 2020 and 2021! Truly magical.


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The has a lot to gain if a true fiscal union would happen.


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The Fed will buy it.

S&P Cuts Rolls-Royce To Junk

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The Chinese is strengthening, helping the 'risk-on' mood!


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These Fed guys are dangerous.

NY Fed President Williams says U.S. is not 'anywhere near' its limits to run up debt

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reaching the December 2019 lows with over 40M Americans filing for unemployment and 25% unemployment.

(thread)


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Risk Haven Assets update: - WTI (undated) 3424 +3.97% 1717 +0.47% 107.67 -0.05% (Undated) 29.66 +0.92% 9452.40 +3.13% 25728 +0.73%


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Stocks seem unstoppable right now...


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I’ve been doing remote work for a decade now. Majority of the time on the road or home and working/investing from the laptop & mobile phone. Coronavirus has changed the world so rapidly over the last few months, the location independent lifestyle isn’t a secret anymore.


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House votes to ease restrictions on coronavirus small business loans The legislation allows companies seeking loan forgiveness to use a smaller share of the money on payroll, among other changes.


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NASDAQ +100


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The legacy of 2020: The large got larger The small got smaller The rich got richer The poor got poorer Debt & monetary expansion exploded higher and there is zero exit strategy.

(thread)

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Debt, debt and more debt.

* U.S. CORPORATE BOND SALES HIT $1 TRILLION AT FASTEST PACE EVER * U.S. HIGH-GRADE BOND 2020 SALES AT ABOUT DOUBLE OF…

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No algos were hurt in the making of this channel.



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Price Analysis: US pushing against triangle support


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Q2 2020 GDP -40.4%.

On May 28, the model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q22020 is -40.4%. Please note that it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. …

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I'm so old I remember when profits mattered.


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Tanquero de crudo PETION de pabellon 🇵🇦 que zarpó de Matanzas y atracó en El Palito aguarda la gasolina del tanquero FORTUNE con bandera de 🇮🇷 para llevarsela a Cuba. Terroris…

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When are month end mark ups over?

(thread)

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Me: I know! If I shave off this 3 week old beard, I’ll look young again. Also me, after shave: WHAT’S WITH THESE WRINKLES??




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I’m off the desk tomorrow, but I’ve put in an order to sell at 3120. 🤞



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United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity rose from previous -62 to -25 in May




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SPARE CAPACITY at Cushing should ease concerns about delivery and improve functioning of NYMEX WTI contract, where pricing started to break down in May and Jun. But it may be some time before anxiety among futures traders about the physical delivery mechanism is allayed fully:

(thread)

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CUSHING STORAGE is now just 68% full, down from a peak of 83% on May 1, which should ease concerns about a storage crisis around the NYMEX WTI delivery point. The area has capacity to store up to another +25 million bbl if necessary:

(thread)

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U.S. CRUDE STOCKS around the NYMEX WTI delivery point at Cushing fell -3.4 million bbl last week, the third weekly draw, taking total fall in stocks in the area to -12 million bbl since May 1:

(thread)

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Nevertheless, both asset classes can be used to create great cash flow and/or massive capital gains. It is a matter of figuring out the right strategy for you, as well as finding the right deals.

(thread)

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On the other hand, multi-family real estate is valued by net income after expenses (NOI, CAP rates, etc). It was always designed to be a great cash flow vehicle, because it’s a group of units in a massive complex.

(thread)

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Single-family vs multi-family real estate. Single-family real estate is valued on comparables & was never intended to be a great cash flow vehicle. It was always designed to be used for living, therefore its value comes from other similar homes located in nearby areas.

(thread)

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Comments about active real estate deals... “Yeah, but I got to do all this work. It’s not easy & it’s not passive.” Yes, exactly. That is precisely why there is an opportunity to make money. If there wasn’t any work & it was all passive, it wouldn't return a high % return.


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U.S. DISTILLATE STOCKS climbed another +5.5 million bbl to 164 million bbl and are now +39 million bbl above the 2019 level and +37 million bbl above the 10-year seasonal average:

(thread)

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U.S. GASOLINE STOCKS fell -0.7 million bbl to 255 million bbl last week:

(thread)

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5. In 2009, voluntarily gave up $1 million of her salary to save jobs at CBS News If 50 people lost their jobs this time around as some reports suggest, it wouldn't take much for Susan Zirinsky & some of her top on-air talent to save jobs

(thread)

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Other than the surge in Saudi oil imports, the other highlights of the weekly report were: a) another big negative adjustment factor (-999,000 b/d), signalling EIA is likely overestimating oil production, and b) a recovery in proxy for gasoline demand to 7.3m b/d |


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U.S. GASOLINE SUPPLIED averaged 7.3 million b/d last week, up from a recent low of 5.1 million b/d in early Apr, but still well below the pre-lockdown rate of 9.7 million b/d:

(thread)

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U.S. PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED averaged 16.0 million b/d last week, down from 16.6 million b/d the week before, but still well above the early-Apr lows:

(thread)

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U.S. CRUDE OIL IMPORTS accelerated by +2.0 million b/d last week, the largest one-week increase for almost 24 years. Crude imports averaged 7.2 million b/d last week up from 5.2 million b/d the week before, which accounted for the large rise in U.S. crude stocks:

(thread)

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In northern Iraq, one oil company got paid a "nil amount" in April for the 36,000 b/d it pumped. The reason? The monthly average price for Dated Brent was less than the $21 a barrel discount for its crude | Full story with is here:


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“Chamillionaire isn’t cool. You know what’s cool? Kajillionaire.” -Justin Timberlake portrayed by Sean Parker in the The Facebook Movie

‘Kajillionaire’ Will Now Cash In This Fall At Theaters

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U.S. COMMERCIAL CRUDE STOCKS rose +8 million bbl to 534 million bbl, reversing a two-week drawdown, and the largest inventory build for four weeks:

(thread)

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U.S. PETROLEUM INVENTORIES ex SPR rose by +15 million bbl last week to a record 1.41 billion barrels:

(thread)

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CHART OF THE DAY: U.S. crude inventories jump after imports of Saudi oil surge to a 4-year high. The arrival of the Saudi tanker armada sent week-on-week imports of Saudi crude up by ~1m b/d to 1.59m b/d |


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Breaking: tells China that unless it suspends plans for new security laws in Hong Kong, the UK will give greater visa rights to 300,000+ British National (Overseas) passport holders. Current right to 6 mths in Britain without visa would be increased to 12 mths.

(thread)

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Looks like they finally found those Border Customs papers.

+2Mbpd in week-on-week change in imports, swinging a draw to a build of 8 million barrels.…
(thread)

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U.K. government's refusal to grant full rights to Hong Kong citizens with BNO status to live and work in the United Kingdom was intensely controversial in the late 1990s, both in the territory and at home in Britain. Raab appears to be reopening the issue

(thread)

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If U.K. Foreign Sec. Dominic Raab meant what he appears to have said, it would be a major revision of U.K approach to Hong Kong residents. Britain always denied it had a continuing obligation to former colonial subjects. Raab's statement overturns long and controversial policy

(thread)


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Oils update: - WTI (JUL) 3245 -1.1% - WTI (AUG) 3288 -1.05% - Brent (JUL) 3434 -1.07% - Brent (AUG) 3507 -1.04% 10144 -0.2% Gas Oil 282 -2.92%


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The complicated and sensitive history and politics of the British Nationality Act 1981 as well as the British Nationality (Hong Kong) Act 1990 was at the heart of long transition and handover process as well as questions about the territory's future under One Country Two Systems

(thread)

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Wow- huge build.....

EIA weekly US oil inventories +7928K vs -1911K expected

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HONG KONG residents' right to full British citizenship, with the right to come and live and work in the United Kingdom, is another key issue that was at the centre of the UK-PRC-HK disputes in the lead up to the handover in 1997

(thread)

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market so dull CNBC turned off the scrolling ticker


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Canada Current Account below forecasts (-10B) in 1Q: Actual (-11.09B)


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In spite of "reopening" US air travel is still down 90% YOY, according to the TSA


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HONG KONG citizens with the status of British National (Overseas) are currently subject to immigration controls in the United Kingdom:

(thread)

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Initial sero-survey results from UK show ~7% of population tested positive for antibodies against the Another data point from one of the hardest-hit country demonstrate that we are nowhere near herd immunity


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Sentiment check: "70% believe 2020 mkt lows won’t be re-tested"

May 12-27 poll of >250 analysts across Asia, EU & Americas (sample size varies with each topic): *70% believe 2020 mkt lows won’t be re-tested…

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BRITAIN seems to be offering a pathway to U.K. residency and citizenship for some Hong Kong residents, after restricting the right to immigrate in the 1980s/90s:

(thread)



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WHO says Covid-19 caused 159,000 excess deaths in 24 European countries



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Coronavirus could put nearly 14 million at risk of hunger in Latin America and the Caribbean, the UN says


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People from two households in Scotland can meet in groups of 8 from Friday


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With all eyes on South China Sea, U.S. Navy dispatches two warships to East China Sea: Japan-based USS New Orleans and guided-missile destroyer Rafael Peralta from TR strike group


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Harrods to Reopen Flagship London Store, Plans Outlet Shop


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Getting out there, walking the properties, building relationships, negotiating, closing deals, getting your hands dirty, designing, renovating, exiting deals & feeling the whole process as your experience builds up. That is a priceless money-making skill books cannot teach.

(thread)

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The theory is fine & it’s important to have a solid foundation, but you can learn theory for free 2 hours a day, for 30 days on real estate blogs & social media like Youtube channels. What is more important is doing the practice — the real thing.

(thread)

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... meaning not knowing anything about real estate, towards 3 or 4 where you understand the basics. However, to get your knowledge towards 7s or higher — to become a real estate pro — you got to start hanging out with other investors & also start doing deals yourself.

(thread)

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It seems not a day passes where someone private messages me asking for real estate book recommendations. So... Which real estate book would I recommend? Short answer: None. Long answer: real estate books are usually useful to get your base knowledge from 0... (continued)

(thread)

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You guys. Full House saw all of this coming.

[VIDEO]

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U.S. Pending Home Sales Index Falls to Lowest in Records to 2001


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100,000 dead. Let's go to Disneyland!

Disney theme park, Las Vegas casinos plan reopening; U.S. mourns 100,000 dead

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The storied Come-by-Chance 135,000 b/d oil refinery, in eastern Canada, changes hands again. Over time, the plant has been closely associated with some of the biggest names of the oil trading industry |


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Investor sentiment when the Fed saves every dip

[VIDEO]


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The fuller commentary on oil on China TV-I come in after 2 minutes-My friends who speak Mandarin, have fun!


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### U.S. planning to cancel visas of Chinese graduate students: sources ###




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Abercrombie & Fitch sales fall 34%, with stores forced shut



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Economy faces long-term damage even as businesses reopen, Mark Zandi



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Uber sends thousands of electric bikes to the scrapheap after Lime deal


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Popeyes U.S. same-store sales soar more than 40%


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I was talking with a friend about advice for our students during these topsy-turvy times, and she came up with an interesting analogy, and it leads to some hopeful advice. (Hat tip to Karen Bernhardt-Walther at )


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Nearly 41 million jobless claims have now been filed since the coronavirus was declared a pandemic



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IF YOU would like to receive a free daily digest of best in energy news + my own research notes, you can add your email to the circulation list here:


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It's a phase one kinda world: Phase one trade optimism Phase one vaccine optimism Phase one return to work optimism

* DE BLASIO SAYS EXPECTS BETWEEN 200,000 -400,000 PEOPLE TO RETURN TO WORK IN PHASE ONE * DE BLASIO SAYS PHASE ONE LIKELY TO BE ANNOUNCED IN…

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EIA: U.S. renewable energy consumption surpasses coal for the first time in over 130 years


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Shot clock violation

[VIDEO]


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S&P 500 New York Price Forecast: US stocks hold above 3000 mark, bullish


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HSBC has published excellent report on how coronavirus and accelerated shift to home-working might reshape cities and transport. It's behind a research wall (for compliance) but if you have a contact at the bank they should be able to obtain it for you. Highly recommended


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Praise the Lord! He's a Capitalist!


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The 70,000 year view on my 401k is incredible too.

The 70,000 year view on the coronavirus crisis isn’t all bad

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The same "rotation" narrative that is being sold now was also in play during last month's month end markups. And then banks dropped 21%.




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If took trade gapped over the 200DMA -now has to hold 66-so stop under there with target near 67 of to trim some

MMMA-I mentioned CVS in today's video-broke from 30-min OR and should get some resistance near 200-DMA 65.90-if in and want guidance, pls ask-active trade rec only

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Jam the overnight futures, sell the open.


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54% of Americans are worried the market hasn’t bottomed out yet. - quarterly study


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CHINA ASKS HONG KONG TO COMPLETE ARTICLE 23 LEGISLATION SOON – XINHUA




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The same people that told you there was no recession risk are now telling you the recession will be short lived.

(thread)

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Interesting chart by showing average investor cash exposure troughed all the back in Jan 2018 below 10%. During the recent panic, investors have raised cash towards 15% by selling down assets in Covid19 panic. Cash levels reached 21% during early 2009 GFC panic.


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Popeye’s is friggin killing it


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Singapore’s top court ruled in favor of a claim by Noble Group Ltd.’s former Chief Executive Officer Ricardo Leiman to millions of unpaid shares, overturning an earlier ruling while upholding that he wasn’t entitled to his bonus. With




(PREMIUM) The Lyons Share Daily Strategy Outlook & Charts videos for 5/28/2020 are up: Among markets covered:


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Mr. Market is always predicting higher long rates and is wrong about this, DB highlights.




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Germany: Annual CPI drops to 0.6% in May as expected


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Americans have filed more than 40 million jobless claims in the past 10 weeks, as another 2.1 million filed for benefits last week.


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US Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 2.123mln from 2.446mln prev week but still remain over three times as high as the pre-coronavirus record high. US jobless claims since lockdown top 40mln.


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TINY STEPS towards normalising home-working could become a stampede:



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1.9 million initial claims for unemployment insurance (unadjusted) + 1.2 million initial claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance = 3.1 million new initial claims over the previous week

JUST IN: Another 2.1 million American workers file for unemployment benefits (2.1 million expected)
(thread)

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Continuing jobless claims fell almost 4 million last week!


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Yesterday markets closed at a valuation of 143.4% market cap to GDP.


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40.8M unemployment filings in 2 month, that's 25% of the US workforce.



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US Personal Consumption Q1 S: -6.8% (exp -7.5%; prev -7.6%) - GDP Price Index Q1 S: 1.6% (exp 1.3%; prev 1.3%) - Core PCE (Q/Q) Q1 S: 1.6% (exp 1.8%; prev 1.8%)



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Core capex orders were down 5.8% in April (-10.0% expected)

April 2020 new orders, down three of the last four months, -17.2% to $170.0B (seasonally adjusted), which is the lowest percent change since August 2014. …

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The U.S. economy shrank at a 5.0% pace in Q1, more than the 4.8% rate of decline initially estimated a month ago.


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50% unemployment = 5000

Weekly jobless claims total 2.123 million, vs 2.05 million estimate

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BREAKING! US initial jobless claims totaled 2.1 million last week, more than 40 million since the crisis hit.


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JUST IN: Another 2.1 million American workers file for unemployment benefits (2.1 million expected)

(thread)

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If you don't publish bad news it doesn't exist.

Breaking precedent, White House won’t release formal economic projections this summer that would forecast extent of downturn via



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Join us today at 10:30 EDT weekly update #11

Time flies in lockdown... Week #11 in our update series is tomorrow, 5/28 at 10:30 AM EDT…

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's annual inflation drops to 0.6% in May, lowest since 2016 as expected.



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40 pivotal support 137 supp156 supportort-still has gap to 144.96 153 nearest support Broke 128 intraday but came back to close at 132 Unconfirmed accumulation phase-has to hold 40.63



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US Opening Calls: 25730 +0.74% 3044 +0.28% 9376 -0.67% 1447 +0.82% 3746 -1.39%



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Back over the 200-DMA. 299.55 support 147.50 next big resistance 140 key support 263 resistance with 250 support With these potential reversal patterns, all about the confirms-it did not


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“The world’s biggest real estate investors are sitting on piles of cash, preparing for once-in-a-lifetime opportunities created by the pandemic. ...commercial real estate prices are expected to come down. How much they’ll fall is the key question.”



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Saudi Arabia and some other OPEC producers want to extend output cuts until December – Reuters


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ExxonMobil negotiated the largest contract in a government program that will allow oil companies to temporarily store more than 23mn bl of privately-owned crude at the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).




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The Thursday MarketPunks show is out. We get into our portfolio, what's driving markets, and our thoughts on . Come over and check it out at our new home:



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The implied risk premium for the exchange rate, the part of the FX rate not explained by the difference in short-term interest rates, is high from a historical perspective. A big step to a real fiscal union should lower that risk premium! fine chart by


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Moscow could support an extension of the May-June crude oil production cuts agreed with Opec-plus for another two months, according to Russian press reports



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USDJPY - approaching a price line that has been previously tested numerous times in ... 73.05% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money


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That’s really rich coming from him.

Mark Zuckerberg says social networks should not be fact-checking political speech: 'People should be able to see what politicians say.'

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Venture capitalists and make the case for Bitcoin, regardless of whether monetary expansion leads to inflation:


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Retail investors have continued to follow the megacap growth trend, increasing their holdings of the largest stocks in trading accounts



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☎ A risk worthy of your consideration.

[VIDEO]


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One Icelandic knitwear designer is creating face masks that are trippy and cozy pieces of art.


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1. A thread on selection bias, COVID testing, and a failure to detect community spread in the US that cost us a month or more in the pandemic response. In my forthcoming book with , we devote an entire chapter to a class of statistical pitfalls known as selection bias.

(thread)

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Tech has started lagging notably.


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The Fed is highly emotional. It panics during every 20% sell off.

Replying to @NorthmanTrader
The Fed is immune to emotions

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Many people are too emotional when it comes to markets.



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eases from tops, back below 1.1000


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Replying to

I did indeed. On March 23, the day of the low I said this: "this rally will be awe inspiring, it’ll produce technical reconnects in a market that is now widely disconnected to the downside and it will bring back optimism". It has & now we'll see.



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polluted air kills coronavirus

Outdoors and the coronavirus: “...can be inactivated by ultraviolet radiation in sunlight, and it is likely sensitive to ambient temperature and relative humidity,…

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components above their 50MA has reached 94, a weekly high, right as it's poking above its weekly 50MA. Suggestive of a pullback coming.


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China is the world's largest developing country, while the US is the world's largest developed country. With different social systems, cultural traditions, and history, conflicts between the two nations are inevitable. But, the question is how to deal with it: Premier Li


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China Premier Li says fighting between US & China will 'hurt both sides'


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U.S. TO EXPEL CHINESE STUDENTS W/ TIES TO MILITARY SCHOOLS: NYT


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CHINA PREMIER LI SAYS CHINA-U.S. TIES FACE NEW PROBLEMS, NEW CHALLENGES


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President Donald Trump said the U.S. was working on a strong response to China’s planned national security legislation for Hong Kong and it would be announced before the end of the week. More:

[VIDEO]


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APAC Closing Prices: 5851.1 +1.32% 21916.31 +2.32% 23132.76 -0.72% 9551.56 -0.17% 3856.63 +0.29%


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Italy Business Confidence came in at 71.2 below forecasts (79) in May


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“A very expensive weekend” The costs of keeping Britain’s lights on spiralled to £51 million for Friday-Monday as National Grid paid wind and solar farms to switch off, gas plants to fire up and had to restrict the use of its own subsea power cables...



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📺 [MARKETPUNKS SHOW ON NOW] What you need to know and what we’re thinking about global markets on this Thursday. SHOW LENGTH: 10 Minutes. MarketPunks is on Mon-Thurs.

[VIDEO]

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90% of all 4,220 COVID-19 mortalities in Sweden are over the age of 70; 49% of which were in senior homes while 25% had domestic care assistance. Sweden's latest stats show a total of 35,088 confirmed infected; 2,002 in ICU. 95 new deaths reported yesterday.

90 procent av alla döda i covid-19 var över 70:

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Reminds me that I haven't gotten around to reading Barbara Tuchman's biographical-history "Stilwell and the American Experience in China", which has been sitting on the shelf for over a decade now. Must read that this year

(thread)

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QUESTION: Is David Stilwell, current Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the U.S. State Department, any relation to General "Vinegar Joe" Stilwell, commander of U.S. forces in China-Burma-India during WW2 and military advisor to Chiang Kai-shek?

(thread)

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Woosah, guys. Woosah.

(thread)

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Now he’s on the spot having threatened to respond.

Chinese lawmakers approved a proposal for sweeping new national security legislation in Hong Kong, defying a threat by Donald Trump to respond strongly

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Americans wonder why we don't have lockdowns here in Sweden. Ultimately, we can't print cash like USA can. Just print the caaaaaaash! And chiiiiiiiiill.

[VIDEO]
(thread)

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Every time something major happens in the US, the news media goes into a 24h breaking news crisis mode and then dormant industries have their day in the sun by selling stuff like parachutes to skyscraper tenants. WTF guys, just print more digital money instead and chill....

2:03
The demand for thermal cameras are soaring with a growing need to check individuals' temperatures
(thread)


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Experts: China may ‘strongly retaliate’ if the US moves to intervene in internal affairs – Global Times


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API is not a "report". It might be to them, but it isn't, really. It is a "survey", which should of course be more insightful than a "forecast" given that many oil companies send them weekly updates.

Oil extended its drop after a U.S. industry report signaled crude inventories swelled for the first time in three weeks

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Hey guys, in our podcast we discuss whether the crash on the real estate market will come after all w/a time lag, when unemployment rises and many shaky loans burst. Normally Europace House Price Index follows the stock market index Dax. MUST HEAR!!!


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The coronavirus upends global markets, edition: Much of the world’s bullion (about 500 tonnes) has been flowing to New York for the past 2 months after Comex futures traded at an unusually large premium to the spot price


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Hong Kong's democrats call on Trump to hammer the city's economy. “Sanctions against the Chinese and Hong Kong officials concerned are seen as a minimum. Temporary suspension of the special trading status is what many of them hope for.”


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approves controversial national security bill for Hong Kong, paving the way for the law to be finalized and implemented in the city. Defying Trump.


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🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇭🇰 Chinese lawmakers approved a proposal for sweeping new national security legislation in , defying a threat by U.S. President Donald Trump to respond strongly to a measure that democracy advocates say will curb essential freedoms in the city - Bloomberg

(thread)



Today: Will US data serve as a tie-breaker? Markets torn between HK worries, intrinsic optimism


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Bill Ackman gives up on Warren Buffett as Berkshire has lost its luster. Shares have lagged behind the broader mkt as Buffett allows Berkshire Hathaway's cash to accumulate.


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The is up another 2% today, bringing to the total gain since the March low to 33%.



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European Opening Calls: 6193 +0.80% 11765 +0.92% 4724 +0.76% 532 +0.66% 18118 +1.16% 7226 +0.72% 1635 +0.71% 3071 +0.65%


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The folks at outline the net benefits & costs of the proposed EU fund, on a country-by-country basis.


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A chart for the bulls: Measured by M2 money supply, S&P 500’s mkt cap is way below the highs, so ratio leaves further upside for valuation.


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🇨🇳 🇺🇸 MILITARY MONITOR, EXPEL U.S. WARSHIP IN SOUTH CHINA SEA - BBG *CHINA SAYS U.S. HURTS PEACE, STABILITY IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

(thread)

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🇹🇼 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 PLANS TO BUY HARPOON MISSILES FROM THE U.S.: CNA

(thread)

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Global stock market rally continues on econ hopes, but Hong Kong tensions sour mood in Asia a bit. US and European Futures up >1%. Bonds slightly lower w/US 10y yields at 0.7%. WTI Oil extends slide <$32 on signs US stockpiles swelled. Gold and Bitcoin edge up to $1719 and $9.2k.




ESP35 is quickly approaching the support line of a Channel Up. We expect either a br... 73.05% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money


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EURCHF hits 1.066 after a 1.42% move spanning 15 dayshttps://turl.io/HyC2Tkv 73.05% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.



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Asia-Pac Catch Up: 🇺🇸🇨🇳 Sino-U.S. Tensions Continue To Swirl 🇭🇰 Security Law Offenders In Hong Kong Will Not Be Sent For Trial In China (SCMP) 🇺🇸 Fed's Kaplan Open To YCC (MNI) 🇨🇳 PBoC's Lean Against USD/Yuan Rally Does Little 🇪🇺 Estonia Cannot Agree To EU Rescue Plan (RTRS)


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NEW: initiates phase III clinical trial of its drug Actemra plus Gilead's in patients w/ severe COVID-19 pneumonia "Based on our current understanding, we believe that combining an antiviral with an immune modulator could potentially be an effective approach"




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Huawei Technologies has stockpiled up to two years' worth of crucial American chips to shield its operations from Washington's crackdowns, sources told the Nikkei Asian Review


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Any unilateral change of policy towards would create a negative impact on relations between the two sides and harm the US’ own interests, says HK govt spokesperson



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🇫🇷 *LE MAIRE: FRENCH ECONOMY LIKELY TO SHRINK MORE THAN 8% IN 2020 - BBG ➡ As I noted almost 2 months ago (): "A Double Digit ⬇ is a credible scenario"

🇫🇷 French economy could contract 20% in second quarter: INSEE - Reuters *Link: *Insee (French):
(thread)
(thread)


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☎ Market more focused on recovery than trade tension.

[VIDEO]

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Good morning from , where Lufthansa leads the list of bailouts w/ the equivalent of almost $10bn. Adidas follows in 2nd place, ahead of tourism group Tui and electronics retailer Ceconomy and car rental company Six.


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Dutch producer confidence rose in May, but only very marginally so...



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Sector update: Financials 4750 +2.86% Energy 7756 -1.25% Materials 13002 +1.52% Industrials 5888 +0.87% Cons. Discr 2349 +0.08% Cons. Staple 11792 +0.45% Health Care 41848 +0.01% Comms 1180 +1.08% Info Tech 1477 -0.03% Utilities 7724 +2.03%



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Crypto update: 9172.65 +0.08% 206.17 -0.16% (XRP) 0.1965 -0.51% 230.47 -0.61% 2.5413 -0.51% 0.0659 -0.9% 43.50 -0.16% 9.965 +0.01% 10 Index 2639 -0.24%



2

FX update: 1.1008 -0.02% 1.2250 -0.08% 107.82 +0.09% 0.6598 -0.38% 0.8986 +0.08% 1.3779 +0.19% 0.9687 +0.05%




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to shine amid US-China tensions, global efforts to ramp up inflation – TDS



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State A/S Stilwell on China sanctions: “We’re going to do this in a smart way, that takes care of the things and the people we care about, while at the same time letting Beijing know that what they’re doing contravenes what they agreed to do back in ’97.”


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NASDAQ FUTS -60, WTI -3.8%


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Today, I reported to Congress that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous from China, given facts on the ground. The United States stands with the people of Hong Kong.


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‘The U.S. House passes sanctions bill’ Chinese continues to weaken




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Nikkei 225 likely to remain depressed this year amid coronavirus crisis – Reuters poll


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While , SPY, the Dow rallied, so did Gold , after a 3-4-day correction. However, in the world of commodities, not everyone joined the party. Oil, even after the Saudi’s announced they would keep production low, closed red.




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Silver Price Analysis: Probes weekly falling channel above $17.00




🇰🇷 BoK will go beyond rate cuts re: easing tools, if needed, including active buying of government bonds.

🇰🇷✂️✂️✂️ 25bp cut from the Bank of Korea, matching expectations.

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Amtrak to cut up to 20% of workforce


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El Salvador’s leader is taking hydroxychloroquine as a Covid-19 treatment


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A U.S. army unit will arrive in Colombia in the coming days to help the Andean country’s armed forces fight against drug trafficking for a four-month period, the U.S. embassy in Bogota said on Wednesday.


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Trump to sign executive order on social media on Thursday: White House



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Tencent raises $6 billion in largest Asian corporate debt deal this year


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American Airlines says to cut management and support staff by 30%



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Even though we can’t all be together as often as we want during , we found a way to have some fun together. Little man introduced us to Sword/Shield. I have to tip my hat to developers. Game is a blast and feature is awesome family fun!



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South Korea BoK Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (0.5%) in May


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Big Tech is doing everything in their very considerable power to CENSOR in advance of the 2020 Election. If that happens, we no longer have our freedom. I will never let it happen! They tried hard in 2016, and lost. Now they are going absolutely CRAZY. Stay Tuned!!!


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The George Floyd murder video is the most disgusting and discouraging thing so far in this year of remarkable discouragement.


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Fed releases FAQs for its Main Street Lending Program. Some notes: -PE funds not eligible -when calculating adjusted EBITDA, lenders must use methodology for "similarly situated borrowers" -lenders can offer Main St loans to new customers


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RBA: A reminder that RBA Governor Lowe will appear before the Senate Select


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🇰🇷✂️✂️✂️ 25bp cut from the Bank of Korea, matching expectations.


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RBA Governor Lowe suggests that it is quite possible that the estimate of full employment could start rising towards 5.0% again. - Points to uncertainty and need to reduce scarring in the labour market.


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Excellent piece in today explaining why is necessary for reducing transmission of “My mask protects you; your mask protects me.”


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NZ April fall largest since the filled jobs series began more than 20 years ago


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Uber in the time of covid