KOTOV.IN
RRTLAug 12, 12 AM UTC

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South Korea Unemployment Rate above forecasts (3.9%) in July: Actual (4.2%) bit.ly/3kCALm0

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I love you Adam, but actually think $15/dose (or $25/dose even if include the dev cost) is a rather fair price and likely below expectation for many $MRNA investors. Co-owning some IP doesn't mean NIH have the capability to develop and manufacturer vaccines at mass scale.
@adamfeuerstein
The U.S. government just spent $1.5 billion to purchase 100 million doses of the #Covid19 vaccine it owns but lent to $MRNA. Our system is strange.

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US gvnt #COVID19 vaccine contract $MRNA $955M dev cost + $1.5B for 100M doses: ~$25/dose $SNY $GSK $2.1B dev cost + 100M: <$21/dose $PFE $BNTX $1.95B for 100M: $19.50/dose $NVAX $1.6B dev cost + 100M: <$16/dose $JNJ $1B for 100M: $10/dose $AZN $1.2B dev cost+ 300M: <$4/dose

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@zerohedge retweeted
$TSLA up $18B on stock split. Even 1999 didn't provide that level of stupidity.

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@LizAnnSonders
15.1% (or 548) of publicly-traded U.S. companies now considered zombies, highest on record going back to early 1990s (10-year yield falling below -100bps may have been breaking point) @DataArbor @Bloomberg

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Facebook bans blackface and anti-Semitic stereotypes in hate speech update ##

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XAUUSD experienced a very large 22 hours bearish move to 1,978.01https://turl.io/YMVYUtY 75.38% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.



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Important support line being approached by EUSTX50. This price has been tested numer...turl.io/lKWIAoX 75.38% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money


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$MRNA rallying in post market too after getting US Gov deal for 100m doses for up to $1.5B Share up 10% at $75

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If TSLA had announced a 100:1 stock split it would be up 86% right now, because "markets"
@zerohedge
TESLA RISES 4.3% POSTMARKET AFTER ANNOUNCING 5:1 STOCK SPLIT All you need to know about this "market"

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This is what sellside analysts in 1980s USSR felt like

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Joe Biden has annouced his running mate - Senator Kamal Harris.
@JoeBiden
I have the great honor to announce that I’ve picked @KamalaHarris — a fearless fighter for the little guy, and one of the country’s finest public servants — as my running mate.
Show this thread

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Wall Street Close: Down as markets guess that Congress underestimates the economic tidal wave bit.ly/3kygz4B

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On news that Kamala Harris, half black/half Indian, was chose as Biden's VP -- RACIST Americans are bidding up black owned and Indian owned stocks. $IGC, $UONE, $CARV, $BYFC

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General expectations re: RBNZ LSAP (QE) vs. RBA QE ahead of today's RBNZ MPS $AUDNZD

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It's not crazy to think we may see a bump in stock splits. We could be at the beginning of a new bull (marked by pink arrows here), and we're seeing a renaissance in retail investing (a la the late 90s).

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Looks like the stock needs a boost: #Tesla declared 5-1 stock split in form of stock dividend to make stock ownership more accessible to Robinhooders. Each stockholder of record on Aug21 will receive dividend of 4 additional shares. Trading will begin on split-adj basis on Aug31.

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OK seriously, maybe stock splits really are back in style?
@CNBCnow
BREAKING: Tesla announces 5-for-1 stock split cnbc.com
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$TSLA jumps 8% in post market trading after announcing a 5:1 stock split.

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TESLA RISES 4.3% POSTMARKET AFTER ANNOUNCING 5:1 STOCK SPLIT All you need to know about this "market"

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@SamRo retweeted
JEFFREY GUNDLACH on webcast right now: 'My base case is that Donald Trump will win re-election.' Gundlach calls polls 'very, very squishy,' points to conservatives admitting to lying about support. 'We'll see. I think there's a lot of time.' Says expect 'significant' market vol.

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FX update: #EURUSD 1.1741 +0.01% #GBPUSD 1.3048 +0% #USDJPY 106.50 +0.01% #AUDUSD 0.7143 -0.01% #EURGBP 0.8999 +0.01% #USDCAD 1.3300 -0% #USDCHF 0.9168 +0% #FX #forex


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@JavierBlas retweeted
Exxon: Big #Oil Strategy on the Brink? To save the dividend, $XOM has deferred reinvestment that was as much (arguably more) about fixing its sagging financial performance as it was a bullish bet on counter-cyclical growth. So now what? My latest (free) energyintel.com/pages/eig_arti

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Silver still struggling - now off 15% #Gold 1912 -5.7% #Silver 2485 -14.7% #Platinum 932 -5.61% #XAUUSD #XAGUSD #Commodities
@IGSquawk
***Metals in meltdown - silver down over 10%*** #Gold 1935 -4.57% #Silver 2619 -10.09% #Platinum 951 -3.68% #XAUUSD #Commodities

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Just as the voices got loud and narratives got bullish, Gold lost almost 200 bucks in a space of 3 days. $GLD $GDX

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Gundlach: "I am looking for a lot of short-term reversals in markets"

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Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD continues to dive and briefly printed below $25 bit.ly/2Faa4oh

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The presidential race just got real.

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Joe Biden picks US Senator Kamala Harris of California as his running mate, betting that her ties to the African-American community and self-branding as a “progressive prosecutor” will help propel him to the White House. marketwatch.com/story/joe-bide

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"Price compression doesn’t last and with lack of 2 way price discovery on the way up price gains are to be viewed with extreme caution and with a close eye on the exit door"

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BREAKING! #Biden selects Kamala #Harris as Running Mate.

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BIDEN PICKS KAMALA HARRIS AS HIS RUNNING MATE


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Vertiv announces commencement of secondary public offering of 20.0 mln shares of Class A common stock by VPE Holdings $VRT


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Overstock announces public offering of 1.7 mln common share $OSTK Brilliant

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Vir Biotechnology reports Q2 results; expects to start a Phase 2/3 clinical trial program for VIR-7831, a SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing monoclonal antibody in August $VIR

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Plug Power announces public offering of $300.0 mln of its common stock $PLUG

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OK, let's have some fun with this. Describe the last hour of trading today with just one GIF.

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Silver down only -15%. Not a bad day at the office.

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@TihoBrkan retweeted
Buying some puts on Silver this week might turn out to be a very profitable trade in the coming months. The risk would be low, relative to the potential return. The short term spike is one of the history books... EXTREMELY overstretched on all technical indicators we follow.

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5 months straight up: Smooth functioning. 1 month down: $7 trillion in intervention

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oof what's the opposite of a flex?

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@zerohedge retweeted
MOC $1.6 BILLION TO SELL

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@russian_market retweeted
Instead of wasting money on Donald Trump’s stupid border wall, we should invest in domestic priorities like: rebuilding our crumbling infrastructure making college tuition-free making healthcare a right guaranteeing paid family and sick leave

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@russian_market retweeted
We can still stop the Republicans from cutting taxes on the top 1% at the direct expense of working people.

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@russian_market retweeted
When elected president, I’ll invest $12 billion in Black entrepreneurs by increasing access to credit and capital through direct federal grants. Together, we can create opportunity for Black entrepreneurs to grow the small business engine of our economy.


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@russian_market retweeted
Black women and women of color have long been underrepresented in elected office and in November we have an opportunity to change that. Let's get to work.
@blackvoices
At least 267 Black, Latinx, Asian, Native American, Middle Eastern and North African women are running for the House and Senate, shattering 2018's numbers. huffp.st/9yilQmd

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One down day and everybody's asking what's wrong with markets.

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NASDAQ -140 ON RUSSIAN CURE FOR COVID-19


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$USDCAD bears struggle to maintain the upper hand as #Dollar extends bullish correction bit.ly/3fQgy8B


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Gold -$111 You don’t see such moves everyday. Maybe once in a decade.

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Dear central banks, you have pumped $28 trillion to keep the house of cards from falling. Can't stop now

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People's faith in manipulated markets is starting to wobble

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Headline of the day: *S&P 500 DROPS TO SESSION LOW, DOWN 0.3%: BBG


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I sense a disturbance in the program.

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KAMALA HARRIS you gotta be kidding

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Did he forget who he picked?
@LiveSquawk
Biden Official: No Actual VP Event Scheduled For Today - NYT

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And here comes the reversal to the reflation reversal

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DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BIDEN OFFICIAL SAYS NO ACTUAL VP EVENT TODAY- NYT - Damn it. Biden forgot the name again.

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Because you confused them with AAPL bonds?
@federalreserve
#FedFAQ: Why do U.S. coins seem to be in short supply? go.usa.gov/xfVhC

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BIG TEN POSTPONES FALL FOOTBALL SEASON

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stocks dont like Biden's VP

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*MICROSOFT'S HALO RELEASE DELAYED TO 2021

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MCCONNELL TELLS FOX NEWS STIMULUS TALKS ARE AT STALEMATE

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I would 100% vote for Biden if he found CORN POP and chose him for VP. He was a bad motherfucker

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$SPX as volatility has halved

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@LanceRoberts
World Market Cap now exceeds World GDP. (I can't even think of anything #sarcastic to say)

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@russian_market retweeted
LEAK >>>
@zerohedge
*BIDEN HAS REVEALED VICE PRESIDENT PICK TO TOP ADVISERS: CNN

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*BIDEN HAS REVEALED VICE PRESIDENT PICK TO TOP ADVISERS: CNN


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Before BigCommerce’s IPO, Intuit offered $1.5 billion for the software company $BIGC

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@wolfejosh
1/ So I got a crush on an investor––who is crushing it. Her LAST publicly presented idea was up 300%+ Her NEXT––revealed October 21 with Sam Zell+ more @LTwolfe
Show this thread


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Alphabet’s Verily builds its own lab to speed up coronavirus test results

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Study: Bandanas and neck gaiters less effective than surgical and cloth masks YOU DON'T SAY

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Everytime we see silver crashing by over -5%, next we will see a sharp selloff in the neighboring commodity sector: from copper to oil. Today silver crashed by over 14%

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Rotation, 1 week returns by industry

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@hussmanjp
While overall conditions support a hard-negative outlook at the moment, internals are also borderline. My guess is we're setting up an air pocket, but I wouldn't "fight" a further advance by amplifying a bearish outlook. That said, I just realized why this setup feels familiar.



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@Kevin_Kelly_II
This is a big deal. ir.microstrategy.com/news-releases/

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$NZDUSD Price Analysis: NZD is in consolidation mode ahead of the RBNZ meeting later bit.ly/30Oucot

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Silver down 15%. If this were stocks, the Fed would be about to inject $10 trillion in the market

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@zerohedge retweeted
$1920 Gold July 27 vs. $1920 Gold Aug 11


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Busy = #Edge
@ETFProfessor
Replying to @leadlagreport
Ever want something done - ask someone who is busy to get it done!


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@leadlagreport
Irrespective of its bankruptcy filing, JC Penney’s stock has been the best performer over the past 3 months when compared to other apparel retailers. $TJX $M $KSS $JCPNQ $JWN #bankruptcy #filing #JC Penney #performance #apparel #stocks #markets #economy #investing


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Discipline = #Edge
@leadlagreport
Your ability to stick to a strategy matters more than the strategy itself.

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Gracias Amigo! Appreciate the kind review. #ATWWY
@Soul070_
Around the World with @MarkYusko gives me them good investing feels. Bigly amount of information to soak up youtu.be/mfsw9jVtruE


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@GoingParabolic
"I looked at #bitcoin vs everything [except $ETH but that was a shorter time horizon] and found there is no better trade. Everything is breaking down vs's #bitcoin." Raoul Pal. I love holding #Bitcoin @RaoulGMI @MarkYusko @APompliano


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@DTAPCAP
"NO TRADE MATTERS EXCEPT #Bitcoin" "ALMOST EVERYTHING IS AN INFERIOR TRADE TO #Bitcoin." @RaoulGMI has been a friend for 20 years and have never heard him say these words about any other investment. Investors wake up. PTJ took the lead, time to follow. twitter.com/KISBitcoin/sta

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Gold futures suffer biggest daily dollar decline in more than 7 years on.mktw.net/3kzGyZw

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@MarkYusko retweeted
The greatest wealth is created by being an early investor in #Innovation Making that investment requires believing in something before the majority of people understand it You will be mocked, ridiculed & criticized for your non-consensus action It is absolutely worth it!

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@MarkYusko retweeted
Technology evolves in a 14 year cycle around advances in computing power ‘54 - Mainframe ‘68 - Microchip ‘82 - PC ‘96 - Internet ‘10 - Mobilenet ‘24 - Trustnet Imagine investing in $IBM in ‘50, Fairchild in ‘64, $MSFT in ‘78, $CSCO in ‘92, $AAPL in ‘06 That’s #Bitcoin today...

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@TihoBrkan retweeted
Be it gold or stock, try to buy when they are not hot. Big money is never made from buying what is popular when it is popular. As Buffett says, you pay a heavy price for cheery consensus.

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We talked about our #gold short from $2050 on today's show and where this thing might want to go from here. MarketPunks is on Monday - Thursday. Get the show in your inbox at MarketPunks.Substack.com.

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@kitjuckes retweeted
Au départ de l'étape Châtel-Guyon > Puy Mary, 70 personnes sont venues soutenir les cyclistes de @desELLESauVELO

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So much reflation, we are now looking at a rate hike as soon as 2024

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The writing here -- powerful, gorgeous, sad. "It is akin to the biblical admonishment that people are judged on how they treat “the least of your brothers and sisters.” Except the people of Roseland are not lesser, its residents say — the country is, for having failed them."
@AsteadWesley
NEW: In addition to 2020 stuff, I'll do some stories this year examining America's racial moment post-George Floyd. The first is from Chicago, about black skepticism of white change, the places Ds and Rs have abandoned, and the privilege of being hopeful nytimes.com/2020/08/11/us/
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i think about this
@page_eco
This 1944 CIA memo, on how to infiltrate an organisation and make it dysfunctional, is amazing. Worth framing in the coffee room of every company. ht @esportslaw
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And of course Joe Biden held a democratic Senate seat also for 36 years. If there was true competition in politics you'd see more motion in people holding power in this country. Hence the idea of Trump was appealing to many, an outsider. But boy.

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it's very difficult to unseat incumbents is my larger point. Ask yourself why McConnell with less than 900K Americans voting for him has had a controlling influence in US politics for 20 years? Heck he's held the Senate seat for 36 years. 36 years. "You have no choice" - Carlin

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#Silver is getting hammered today, now down more than 10%. Time to add or sell?

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$AUDUSD Price Analysis: The pair found support at the price pattern low bit.ly/3gQITgj

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The US 30-year Treasury #yield is up 17 basis points in the last couple of days. More growth/inflation coming?

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Markets are at all time highs, that's the donor class that matters to their re-election bids. Gerrymandering has generally assured iron clad districts, PAC donations generally seal the deal. There's little pressure to get anything done. If markets tanked it'd be different.

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@zerohedge retweeted
The slime from the $KODK loan debacle knows no bounds and seems to ooze in all directions.

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And why would they?
@ericawerner
Senate has adjourned for the day. They did not do anything needless to say.

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***Metals in meltdown - silver down over 10%*** #Gold 1935 -4.57% #Silver 2619 -10.09% #Platinum 951 -3.68% #XAUUSD #Commodities

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is there a bigger red flag than a business pitch that leads with a TAM chart?

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#ECB balance sheet hit fresh ATH at €6,385.3bn as Lagarde keeps printing press rumbling and banks took more long-term loans. Total assets rose by another €24.5bn. The balance sheet now equal to 61% of Eurozone GDP if GDP is calculated on a rolling basis over the last 4 quarters


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#DOW 28057.37 +0.96% #SPX 3375.96 +0.46% #NDX 11062.9 -0.20% #RTY 1598.47 +0.87% #VIX 21.69 -1.99%

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Write it down, in case Biden forgets the name.
@Fxhedgers
BIDEN CAMPAIGN PREPARES FOR VP PICK ANNOUNCEMENT - CNBC

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Silver -10%
@russian_market
precious metals bulls, careful here!

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Airbnb plans to confidentially file for IPO this month

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Another record big 3Y auction pricing at a record low yield

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Take that
@russian_market
Gold -$40 Watch out, silver bulls! twitter.com/russian_market…

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@russian_market retweeted
Moskvich 408 Soviet car, Samarkand, Uzbek SSR, 1969

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@ronlieber retweeted
we gathered some numbers about how awful things are for so many people in new york — particularly those who are undocumented, who rely on shelters, who suffer from severe poverty — and published a list of places where you can donate to or volunteer

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FLOATING OIL STORAGE: After 100 days floating in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (and playing the contango trade), the Shell-booked Maran Corona VLCC is departing for Asia. A sign that, despite all the setbacks, crude storage is slowly coming down | #OOTT

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US 10y Treasury yields jump by the most since June as investors prepared for a flood of debt issuance from the US govt and American companies.

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AUD/NZD Price Analysis: Getting ready to extend gains above 1.0900 bit.ly/3fP87u4

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What can possibly go wrong? They are proping up the system and it’s overvalued asset prices (encouraging speculation ) while discouraging people to return back to work (productivity ).
@charliebilello
I've never seen Americans so unified in their belief that there is absolutely no downside to borrowing trillions more to send checks to people who never lost their job during the pandemic - for a second time. Socialism is not coming to America - it's already here. Feel the Bern.
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Asian millennials outnumber the Western economies demographic by 6 to 7 times. For a long time, US consumer was the driving force of the global economy. That will change in the 2020s. These guys are a spending machine relative to their parents generation!

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The Asian millennials demographic!
@7Innovator
What long-term and developing market trend are you the most excited about right now as an investor?
Show this thread

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@zerohedge retweeted
Cancel rent bro today: "Hahaha you landlord loser!" Cancel rent bro 2yrs from now: "Can you believe I can't find a decent place to live? Everything is shitty AND expensive. Or they want 12m deposit"

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@Samir_Madani retweeted
#MauritiusOilSpill as seen today by @CopernicusEU #Sentinel2 The oil slick can be seen as a thin, black line surrounded by the bright turquoise colours of the Indian Ocean. On 8 August the @DisastersChart was activated in response to the spill. esa.int/ESA_Multimedia

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@GoldTelegraph_
MUST WATCH For those who might be wondering: “Where does the Federal Reserve get all the money that they inject into the market via QE?” A blast from the past explanation of how it all works.

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@gaborgurbacs
Publicly traded company MicroStrategy adopts #Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset to hedge against fiat inflation. MicroStrategy allocates $250mm to Bitcoin. This is a big deal and good to see #Bitcoin used as intended: hard money/savings instrument. businesswire.com/news/home/2020
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@C_Barraud retweeted
Looking at latest U.S. #trade data (goods only), Chinese purchases of U.S. goods improved a bit compared to May. However, using a linear extrapolation, they are still expected to decline in 2020 (compared to 2019), while #PhaseOne deal implies a jump of more than 110%

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*KUDLOW SAYS #CHINA MEETING OBLIGATIONS OF TRADE DEAL - BBG
@C_Barraud
In a context where U.S. officials are unlikely to recognize that #Phaseone" agreement is a major fail, they're focusing on other moves to add pressure on #China (#Finance, #Tech, #Taiwan) twitter.com/C_Barraud/stat


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$USDCAD rebounds to 1.3320 and pulls back to the 1.3300 area bit.ly/3iwOnxb

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Move over, big tech. Value stocks (think industrials, financials, energy) are leading for the third straight day. It'd be such a flex for value to boost this market to its first pandemic record high.

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"However, in this financial market enactment of the fight between King Kong and Godzilla, I expect the world’s voracious appetite for safe assets to swallow up the US government’s massive funding needs with barely a burp." 2/2

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SocGen: "Selling humongous amounts of debt in the middle of August would never be easy and with large swathes of the market working from home, the whole process gets even harder." 1/2

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@Samir_Madani retweeted
#BREAKING: Turkish drone kills 2 Iraqi officers in Kurdish region arab.news/9p3uu

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@Samir_Madani retweeted
Church bells are tolling to mark the moment Beirut’s port blew up over the city a week ago at 6:08 pm. So much was lost

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Florida Suffers Record Jump In COVID-19 Deaths; Hawaii, South Dakota, Virgin Islands Added To Quarantine List: Live Updates

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GS - optimisitcally, GDP at the end of next year will be 2% higher than it was at the start of this year
@ISABELNET_SA
US Real GDP Goldman Sachs is optimistic and has raised its 2021 estimate of US real GDP growth to 6.2% isabelnet.com/?s=GDP h/t @GoldmanSachs #markets #GDP #realGDP #growth #coronavirus #economy #economics #US

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@russian_market retweeted
*FLORIDA POSTS RECORD 276 NEW COVID-19 DEATHS AMONG RESIDENTS

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Hmmm.. can't Fed buy planes for Boeing?

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If there were 10 red candles in a row they'd be screaming for more Fed intervention already. $SPX

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*Boeing Customers Cancel 43 MAX Orders in July; no new orders

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@SamRo
Chase card spending still flat through August 7 - JPM

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Chase card spending still flat through August 7 - JPM

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@Samir_Madani retweeted
Turns out NYC apartments getting massively overheated in winter (if you’ve opened a window when it’s -5C and snowing you’ll know) is a feature not a bug. It’s directly linked to the 1918 flu pandemic and was to encourage fresh air. Fascinating piece.


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Gold off the lows - remains sharply lower: #Gold 1950 -3.82% #Silver 2736 -6.1% #Platinum 969 -1.86% #XAUUSD #Commodities

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@Samir_Madani retweeted
How to survive a plunge form a waterfall

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30 million people relying on unemployment insurance are facing immense financial uncertainty and it's not going to be resolved this week because we're waiting for one guy to come back from vacation and one political stunt to play out...
@crampell
No stimulus deal anytime soon, "partly because White House chief of staff Mark Meadows is out for the week but mostly because the administration feels confident they have the upper hand politically following President Donald Trump’s executive actions" politi.co/30M54Pl
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CRUNCHBASE STATEMENT ON DIVERSITY SPOTLIGHT TOOLS

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Caucasia doesn’t seem to be listed

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With the new diversity tools at Crunchbase, you can label your company based upon solely upon race


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Crunchbase adds “Diversity Spotlight Feature” to website in order to search for companies who lack racial diversity in leadership


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Happy pub date! This book is the product of immense reportorial empathy. Please check it out...
@jimtankersley
"The Riches of This Land" is out today. It's the story of the workers who really built the great American middle class, and a roadmap for rebuilding it now from the rubble of our crisis. You can buy it here: publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/jim-tan Now, if you'll indulge me, a quick thread...
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outstanding
@McDonalds
we have a joke about our soft serve machine but we're worried it won't work

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The average price-sales ratio among the so-called #FANMAGs climbed as high as 8.33 last week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. *Their peak just surpassed the previous mark of 8.32, set in June 2018.

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The recovery has stalled in major advanced economies, with some countries hitting a ceiling on activity, below their pre-crisis levels, according to Bloomberg Economics gauges that integrate high-frequency data.

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MAN IN CHICAGO GOES ON $FB LIVE TO CRACK OPEN ATM

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@JavierBlas retweeted
Cal21 #WTI got close to magic $45 target for producer hedging. Even $40 had strong resistance despite limited hedging then. At $45 they will hedge a lot more as this level is the real tipping point for their #hedging economics. #OOTT #oilprice #oil


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Notable movers to downside: $MESO -35%, $INO -21%, $JMIA -13%, $ZI -12%, $SRNE -11%, $OMER -11%, $NVAX -10%

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#Covid19 chart! Online shopping has seen a massive spike as many countries went into (full) #lockdown. But even with most countries removing many lockdown measures more recently, the spike in online spending remains.

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If you loved buying $SPX 3375 with a forward P/E of 24 in February you'll love buying it now with a forward P/E 28.8.

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Covid-19 cases among US children increased 90% over the past 4 weeks

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Florida’s Covid-19 cases in children have increased 137% in past month



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Russia "certainly not ahead of us" when it comes to vaccines, former FDA head says

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US health secretary: "The point is to have a vaccine that is safe," not be first So much salt

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Dr. Sanjay Gupta: "Of course I wouldn't take" Russian vaccine

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Companies Are Buying Less Clean Energy as Pandemic Reshapes Work

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@SamRo retweeted
.@nyknicks Name Kenny Payne Assistant Coach


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Nokia phones maker HMD raises $230 million from Google, Qualcomm and Nokia


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US 10yr 0.64% +6bps


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Morgan Stanley takes a victory lap

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Sell signal.
@atrupar
Fox News is now running ads for QAnon Trumpy Bears. This is not a parody.

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Fwiw I think both Biden and Trump should complete a cognitive test on live TV and then the $VIX can soar to 100.

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"Buy it till you break it" - Robinhood motto

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Quarantine, day 3048954398598: watching the intraday charts like a hawk, eating something called a tangelo because it was the only good-looking orange fruit in the store

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NASDAQ selloff about to hit marketwide tipping point

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@TihoBrkan retweeted
History being made: Put/Call ratio's 50 dma is at the LOWEST level in the past 20 years. Even less extreme cases led to pullbacks/corrections. Worrisome?

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Who knew Idiocracy II would be filmed before a live studio audience.
@Acyn
The President says the “1917 pandemic” ended the Second World War

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@zerohedge retweeted
The last time the S&P 500 traded here 12.9 million more Americans were employed.....but! now they are all making more money unemployed

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I'm so old I remember when high yield actually paid you yield.

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This is what happens when you stop reporting the most popular trades... #Silver down 7% #Robinhood



(PREMIUM) The Lyons Share Daily Strategy Outlook & Charts videos for 8/11/2020 are up: lyonssharepro.com/2020/08/daily- Among markets covered: $SPY $IWM $VIX $DJT $ITB $GDX $DGT $EWT $DXY $GLD $SLV

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US 10yr 0.61%, +3.5bps

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#Gold hourly #RSI with a 10 handle! $XAUUSD


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@SamRo retweeted
PPI for final demand increases 0.6% in July; services rise 0.5%, goods advance 0.8% go.usa.gov/vrI #PPI #BLSdata


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#Tourism remains vulnerable as new outbreaks of #Covid19 continue to pop up. Below a selection of countries with the contribution of #travel and tourism to their #GDP.

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Airlines up more than 5% pre-market

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Metals taking a hammering: #Gold 1959 -3.38% #Silver 2728 -6.37% #Platinum 944 -4.43% #XAUUSD #Commodities

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MicroStrategy Adopts Bitcoin as Primary Treasury Reserve Asset $MSTR Company recently bought $250m with of $BTC

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We've been short #gold from $2050. Might be getting close to a low for the day...but still think there's room for deeper drop towards previous resistance around $1765 before it gets going again back to the topside.


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If you do not take the Russian vaccine, you're a vaxxer

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@IGSquawk retweeted
BELARUS: Several factories have reportedly started striking in opposition to Lukashenko's election victory widely seen as fraudulent.

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This issue is familiar to many faculty who set online submission deadlines for homework. And if you think Kanye has desperate lawyers, wait until you see the whites of the eyes of an undergrad eyeing an investment banking job.
@WakeUp2Politics
Kanye West’s campaign missed a filing deadline by 14 seconds and is now waging a legal battle against the state of Wisconsin that hinges on whether or not “the seconds from 5:00:00 to 5:00:59 are inclusive to 5 p.m.” jsonline.com/story/news/pol
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UK PM Johnson: Need to make sure that we don’t have a second wave bit.ly/3kytoMm

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PPI driven higher by victorious retail daytraders: "In July, a 7.8-percent rise in the index for portfolio management was a major factor in the advance in prices for final demand services"

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PPI Core 0.3% Y/Y, Exp. 0.0%, Last 0.1%

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Vanguard’s FTSE #Europe #ETF, the largest exchange-traded fund focused on the region’s equities, saw an inflow of $242 million in the last session for which Bloomberg has data. *This was the biggest single-day addition since June 2017.


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Spot Gold firmly below $2000 handle #Gold 1976 -2.55% #Silver 2772 -4.86% #Platinum 968 -2% #XAUUSD #Commodities

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Real Rates in control again

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#TRUMP SAYS HE USED TO HAVE A VERY GOOD RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA'S XI BUT HE DOESN'T FEEL THE SAME WAY NOW - FOX SPORTS RADIO INTERVIEW - RTRS

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*#TRUMP SAYS HE HASN'T SPOKEN TO XI IN A LONG TIME - BBG

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@The_Real_Fly retweeted
Despite one newspaper's account, our officers who came to the assistance of an 11-year-old girl being assaulted in Harlem on Sunday did not stand by. They were met by a large crowd that hurled projectiles at them and had to reposition, then called for additional officers.

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@JoelKruger retweeted
#Gold reverses course and heads south for a change.

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@IGSquawk retweeted
WHITE HOUSE ADVISR CONAWAY SAYS TRUMP IS READY TO SIGN A CORONAVIRUS RELIEF PACKAGE


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MAURITIANS ARE DONATING THEIR HAIR BECAUSE IT ABSORBS THE OIL SPILL!! Japan needs to fly out all the necessary equipment and people to clean this up. ASAP! They only sent 6 people.
@Reuters
Mauritians are making floating booms of human hair and leaves in a round-the-clock scramble to mop up oil leaking from a grounded Japanese ship onto their beaches reut.rs/30Jx71L


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South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) registered at -16.3% above expectations (-52.6%) in May bit.ly/3fUvG53

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Precious metals are warning that dollar is back. #PPI

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Wow! The German #ZEW Index rose to its highest level since 2004.

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@JKempEnergy retweeted
Brent futures volumes Monday: 398k lots Brent futures volumes on New Year's Eve: 425k lots Brent futures volumes on MLK Day: 455k lots Brent futures volumes either side of July 4: 260k lots, 467k lots #OOTT

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XAGUSD hits 28.98 after a 67.14% move spanning 57 dayshttps://turl.io/Hb8147K 75.38% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.



After experiencing a 4.29% bullish move in the space of 4 days, nobody knows where ...turl.io/CmoOKI7 75.38% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money

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If Russia proves to have developed an effective Covid vaccine what happens to all the premiums built into pharma stocks?

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Russia announcing a Covid vaccine in less time than it takes for Joe Biden to announce a running mate.

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Humorous to see US medical officials shit on Russia’s COVID vaccine. Meanwhile, ZERO of our vaccines, including COVID ones in development are tested against a placebo.

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Good, now the Fed can raise rates and stop buying $AAPL bonds.
@spectatorindex
JUST IN: Russia says a billion doses of new coronavirus vaccine have been ordered by twenty countries

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SALT
@SquawkCNBC
"I wouldn't take it, certainly not outside a clinical trial right now," says @ScottGottliebMD on breaking news from Russia that the country has approved a #COVID19 vaccine. "It appears that it's only been tested in several hundred patients at most."

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Party time! European stocks are flying today, with the #DAX Index rising above 13,000, up more than 2.5%.

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@russian_market retweeted
Dollar comeback poured cold water on gold’s record-breaking rally.

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EUROSTOXX 50 +2.5%

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Actually the Russian vaccine news is an old news from two weeks. @CNN reporter @mchancecnn tweeted about #Sputnik moment.


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After flowing into the U.S. SPR from April-to-June, oil is now starting to flow out, as the traders / companies that rented storage space inside the reserve take the crude out (important as this will reduce SPR storage but re-inflate "commercial" storage on @EIAgov data) #OOTT

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“Although I know that it works quite effectively, it forms a stable immunity and, I repeat, has passed all the necessary checks,” Putin said. PUTIN THE SAVIOR Oh the irony

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Putin claims Russia has registered the world’s first coronavirus vaccine, says his daughter has taken it

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#Bitcoin is the new darling among investors in time of negative real rates and as the price of cryptocurrency follows the combined balance sheet of Central Banks. welt.de/finanzen/plus2 via @welt

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If only there were signs of a bubble


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United States NFIB Business Optimism Index registered at 98.8, below expectations (105.9) in July bit.ly/30NbRrT

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Anything goes. Nothing matters.

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Old CW: Party like it's 1999 New CW: Party like it's 2020

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Party like it's 1999: #Germany's Dax jumps above 13k after ZEW Econ Expectations Index (as measured by investor sentiment) surprise on the upside. BUT what causes what? Is the Dax driving the ZEW Expectations of investors or are the ZEW expectations of investors driving the Dax?

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If you jump off a cliff with others does that mean your chance of surviving the fall are better?
@DavidInglesTV
If stocks are cheapest relative to bonds in many many years, does that mean they’re cheap?



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#DOW 28053 +0.93% #SPX 3382 +0.61% #NASDAQ 11138 +0.44% #RUSSELL 1603 +1.17% #FANG 4808 +0.73%
@ChrisB_IG
should add the chart of the current 'selloff' (not really a selloff anymore either!) compared to previous ones:
Show this thread

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@IGSquawk retweeted
should add the chart of the current 'selloff' (not really a selloff anymore either!) compared to previous ones:

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[WATCH NOW] Catcher of falling knives – Update on our short gold position from $2,050. What we’re looking at today.

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@SamRo retweeted
S&P 500 up 7 days in a row for the first time since 8 in a row in April '19. Hasn't hit 9 in a row since November '04.

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@SamRo retweeted
Finally a job worth leaving journalism for



“Only 3% of owners reported that all their borrowing needs were not satisfied and 35% reported all their credit needs were met. Fifty-one percent said they were not interested in a loan. A net 2% reported their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts.” @NFIB survey

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Normally we would have expected the post-epidemic death toll to be lower – reflecting the idea the epidemic has hastened the deaths of some already vulnerable people. That is not happening yet, which points to deeper health problems in the aftermath of the epidemic’s first wave:

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ENGLAND AND WALES registered 8,900 deaths in the week ending July 31, around -100 below the prior five-year average. Excess mortality has been negative for seven weeks in a row but the reduced death toll compared with the seasonal average has been small:

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#European Monetary Union ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment above expectations (59.9) in August: Actual (64) bit.ly/30LxYio

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If bulls are not careful they'll end up with a yearly hanging man candle. Spoiler alert: Not a bullish signal.

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@IGSquawk retweeted
NZ PM ARDERN ASKS PEOPLE IN AUCKLAND NOT TO RUSH TO SUPERMARKETS

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@IGSquawk retweeted
NZ PM says Auckland will move to level 3 restrictions for 3 days $NZD


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@JKempEnergy retweeted
Saudi Aramco’s view that #crude oil demand is recovering, and its action in giving only a modest price cut for its Asian refining clients, is a risky strategy that may embolden competitors and hurt market share. #OOTT #oil #Aramco #refineries reuters.com/article/column


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@IGSquawk retweeted
Today’s UK jobs numbers are the worst quarterly figures since 2009. @JeremyNaylor_IG looks across at $GBPUSD, and also highlights a report that shows that up to a third of employers are planning to cut jobs when the furlough scheme finally comes to an end. bit.ly/3cGOtjb

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NEW ZEALAND REPORTS FIRST LOCAL COVID-19 CASE IN 102 DAYS -Bbg

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And we are erasing gains

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@russian_market retweeted
And officially it's been tested on less than 100.

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Germany ZEW Aug survey show strong bounce in expectations to 71.5 vs 55.8 forecast, while current situation index deteriorated to -81.3 vs -69.5 forecast. Markets more interested in forward-looking component which is at highest level since 2003, pointing to GDP growth north of 5%

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@russian_market retweeted
Vladimir Putin claims #Russia has registered the first COVID-19 vaccine in the world. But in reality, the vaccine hasn't passed what is considered minimum testing. It hasn't yet even completed its final Phase III trial. Currently it's only been tested on a few 100 people

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If you can run $3-4 trillion deficits consequence free why not run $5-$10 trillion deficits?

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Oh.. one important remark: This vaccine will be available from January 1, 2021.
@russian_market
FIRST RUSSIAN-PRODUCED VACCINE FOR COVID-19, DEVELOPED BY MOSCOW'S GAMALEYA INSTITUTE, RECEIVES REGULATORY APPROVAL FROM RUSSIAN HEALTH MINISTRY - PUTIN - it belongs to AFK Sistema (traded in London)

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AFK Sistem +6%
@DeItaOne
PUTIN SAYS ONE OF HIS DAUGHTERS HAS ALREADY BEEN VACCINATED

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@IGSquawk retweeted
ZEW INSTITUTE AUG GERMAN CURRENT CONDITIONS INDEX -81.3 PTS VS -80.9 IN PREVIOUS MONTH ZEW INSTITUTE AUG GERMAN ECONOMIC SENTIMENT INDEX 71.5 PTS VS 59.3 IN PREVIOUS MONTH

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@IGSquawk retweeted
German ZEW (Aug) economic expectations comes in 71.5 at exp: 55.8, prev: 59.3

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@russian_market retweeted
PUTIN SAYS ONE OF HIS DAUGHTERS HAS ALREADY BEEN VACCINATED

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FIRST RUSSIAN-PRODUCED VACCINE FOR COVID-19, DEVELOPED BY MOSCOW'S GAMALEYA INSTITUTE, RECEIVES REGULATORY APPROVAL FROM RUSSIAN HEALTH MINISTRY - PUTIN - it belongs to AFK Sistema (traded in London)

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#CHINA JULY SMART PHONE SHIPMENTS DOWN 35.5% Y/Y: CAICT - BBG

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$SPX a mere 10 handles from all time highs.

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To makes this new cycle perfect all we need to hear is Trump ordering the Russian vaccine mandatory for all US citizens via Executive Order.

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Russia announces coronavirus vaccine.
@spectatorindex
JUST IN: Putin says his own daughter has been vaccinated with new coronavirus vaccine


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$AUDUSD targets the 0.7284 55-month moving average – Commerzbank bit.ly/2XQ8RsW

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Would imagine it's Rus(sia)hed into production....
@IGSquawk
PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA REGISTERED FIRST CORONAVIRUS VACCINE -Bbg #RUB +0.45% against other currencies #USDRUB 72.93152 -0.64% #EURRUB 85.82912 -0.52% #RUBJPY 1.455 +0.9%


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PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA REGISTERED FIRST CORONAVIRUS VACCINE -Bbg #RUB +0.45% against other currencies #USDRUB 72.93152 -0.64% #EURRUB 85.82912 -0.52% #RUBJPY 1.455 +0.9%

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Short #gold 2050 paying off nicely. What to do now?

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*PUTIN SAYS #RUSSIA REGISTERED FIRST CORONAVIRUS VACCINE: RIA

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@Samir_Madani retweeted
This is how ammonium nitrate is stored in Jordan. It's stored in a desert, with 40 sqkm of nothing around it, 70 km away from the capital Amman, and protected with cement and steel, so that if one stock explodes, it doesn't affect the other ones around it.

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This is thanks to physical distancing. Peple don’t ride the bus as much as before, so they drive instead. You wouldn’t have expected a >100% YoY in car traffic following COVID, but gasoline consumption is up. Unexpected way to recover, huh? #OOTT
@PriapusIQ
China’s auto sales rose by 16.4% in July over a year earlier to 2.1 million units in a sign of sustained recovery for the industry’s biggest global market, an industry group said Tuesday. ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-aut

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@Samir_Madani retweeted
Iraqi artist Hussein al-Nijar painted eight expressive and abstract paintings, all based on real images, that recreate the aftermath of the warehouse blast in Beirut reut.rs/31HuoFa


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APAC Closing Prices: #ASX 6138.7 +0.47% #NIKKEI 22750.24 +1.88% #HSI 24890.68 +2.11% #HSHARES 10153.4 +1.63% #CSI300 4681.78 -0.91%

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This.
@Splash_247
Ports around the world review ammonia nitrate storage plans in wake of Beirut blast dlvr.it/RdPsfS

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$OEX the S&P 100 has made new all time highs and has hit its upper trend line. New highs on a negative divergence again.

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ICYMI! #Japan's Eco Watcher Survey Expectations Index unexpectedly fell sharply in July, raising doubts about the strength of the Japanese recovery.

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If aliens came to earth and zapped every human to dust we can at least take comfort in knowing that algos would keep buying stocks and save our 401k's.

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@Samir_Madani retweeted
Lebanon's power sector has needed a major overhaul for years. The biggest Christian party in government wants to build a power station in a northern Christian area. @Reuters reveals how it refused to give ground even as viability questions grew reut.rs/31HhAi4

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Iowa and the rest of the U.S. Midwest suffered damage overnight from a line of thunderstorms with wind gusts of 100 mph and more | #OATT #corn #soybeans
@WxKanost
Grain elevator smashed in Luther #iawx


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@Samir_Madani retweeted
Lebanon: "Customs officials first warned about the chemical in 2016. A warning was sent to the Public Works Ministry the very day the Port of Beirut blew up, and at least three other times this year, shunted from office to office, documents suggest."


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@Samir_Madani retweeted
President #Erdogan's neo-nationalist allies are itching for a war with #Greece and they believe they actually fighting against the US and the EU. Cem Gurdeniz, one of the ring leaders in this group who were jailed in the past for secretly trying to plot a conflict with Greece.

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European indices ripping higher: #FTSE 6141.35 +1.50% #DAX 12919.16 +1.83% #CAC 4998.82 +1.82% #AEX 565.7 +1.55% #MIB 20015.33 +1.85% #IBEX 7174.7 +1.71% #OMX 1773.286 +1.39% #STOXX 3315.85 +1.72%



#Eth transactions fees right now.

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The good news however is that there’s a 7 month window to return the remaining 20M they took in. If the US can’t refine its oil due to low demand, then at least it can aim to export it. China is doing its part to import due to Phase 1 Trade Deal. Without them, there’d be builds!

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For the unfamiliar: the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves leased out over 20M barrels of storage space to companies that needed to free up own storage above ground during peak glut. 2.2MB of that 23MB has now returned to sender. Too soon, I say. Refinery Runs still sub-15Mbpd #OOTT
@ReutersCommods
Oil companies start to take back crude from U.S. emergency reserve reut.rs/31I5hCp


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Morning Brief #Trump considering cutting capital gains tax, income taxes for middle-income families firms that fail accounting standards to be delisted as of 2022 goods to be labelled ‘Made in #China’ for export to the *More

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Lira spikes before pulling back on this news: #TRY +0.15% against other currencies #USDTRY 7.3216 -0.03% #EURTRY 8.58711 -0.16% #GBPTRY 9.56278 -0.13% #TRYJPY 14.502 +0.01% #CHFTRY 7.99266 +0.27% tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connec


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Precious Metals update: #Gold 1996 -1.58% #Silver 2797 -3.99% #Platinum 960 -2.72% #XAUUSD #Commodities
@RANsquawk
Spot Gold < USD 2000/oz Spot Silver < USD 28/oz

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EU’s top credit rating can survive €750bn stimulus, say agencies. Divisions on taxes do not threaten Triple A status, Moody’s and Fitch say. „Our credit rating focuses on the ability and willingness of the issuer to service the debt,” said Moody’s Hornung ft.com/content/741c40

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“People in real estate always ask me, hey Sam, what market are you buying today?” And Sam replies: “We don’t ever buy a market. We only buy a great deal.”
@IgnoreNarrative
What’s the best investing advice you’ve ever received?
Show this thread

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AUDUSD is quickly approaching the resistance line of a Rising Wedge. We expect eithe...turl.io/KgJ1sDy 75.38% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money

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European Opening Calls: #FTSE 6103 +0.87% #DAX 12823 +1.07% #CAC 4959 +1.01% #AEX 563 +0.97% #MIB 19858 +1.05% #IBEX 7130 +1.07% #OMX 1763 +0.83% #STOXX 3294 +1.04% #IGOpeningCall

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#Singapore Q2 #GDP growth final estimate: -42.9% annualized, -13.2% YoY.

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Global stocks in Risk On mood w/Asia equities advance most in a week after positive handover from Wall St: S&P 500 near pre-pandemic high. Bonds steady w/US 10y at 0.58%. Dollar a tad weaker w/Euro at $1.1750. Gold weaker at $2,014. Bitcoin at $11.8k.


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HSBC is a good indicator of US-China relations. Bank has lost more than half of its mkt cap since 2018. Now worth only $88bn, from $220bn in 2018 as Hong Kong's revenue accounted for 34% of the group's top line in 2019. Hong Kong share has slid to 9.5% in 1H, w/2Q bearing brunt.

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#Euro Renaissance Emerges From an EU Deal That Changed Everything - Bloomberg *Net long positions on euro the highest on record: CFTC data. *Link: bloom.bg/3af2uED


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Crypto update: #Bitcoin 11823.57 -0.31% #Ether 394.27 -0.25% #Ripple (XRP) 0.3015 +2.27% #BitcoinCash 300.82 -0.34% #EOS 3.1856 -1.02% #Stellar 0.1062 +0.95% #Litecoin 58.13 -0.07% #NEO 14.404 +0.26% #Crypto 10 Index 3955 +0.14% #BTC #ETH #XRP #BCH #XLM #LTC


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#ASX200 Sector update: Financials 4879 +1.18% Energy 7479 +0.47% Materials 14920 +0.41% Industrials 5652 +0.41% Cons. Discr 2585 +0% Cons. Staple 13321 +0.19% Health Care 41631 +0.12% Comms 1251 +0.46% Info Tech 1665 -2.24% Utilities 7824 -0.23% #asx #ausbiz


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FX update: #EURUSD 1.1754 +0.14% #GBPUSD 1.3088 +0.11% #USDJPY 106.11 +0.13% #AUDUSD 0.7182 +0.46% #EURGBP 0.8981 +0.02% #USDCAD 1.3324 -0.2% #USDCHF 0.9150 -0.07% #FX #forex

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#Robinhood Blows Past Rivals in Record Retail Trading Year - Bloomberg *4.31 million daily average revenue trades recorded in June *Link: bloom.bg/31EBXMP

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Good Morning from Germany where FinMin Scholz named SPD chancellor pick in race to succeed Merkel. Federal election scheduled for fall 2021. Measured by polls, it is not important who SPD puts in race for chancellor. SPD trailing both Merkel’s CDU & Greens bloomberg.com/news/articles/


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U.S. #Junk Bond Market Sets Record-Low Coupon in Relentless Rally - Bloomberg *Link: bloom.bg/30HGe2W

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Why are so many damned sports teams named after natives anyway?

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Braves’ finances hit hard: 95% drop in revenue; employee pay cuts



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DAX FUTS +0.8%

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"Financially Devastated" - 83% Of NYC Restaurants Unable To Pay July Rent

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Real vs Nominal vs Breakeven rates 101: Nominal rates are bound by 0% and YCC (for now), Real are not and will continue to hit record negative lows, which means BEs will soar far beyond fair value signaling stagflation



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China Car Recovery Gathers Pace With July Sales Rising 8.5%

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Dimon, Bezos Among CEOs Pledging to Hire 100,000 New Yorkers Lol

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Biden preparing to announce running mate by mid-week: NYT


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FEDERAL RESERVE CORP BOND PURCHASES ABOVE PAR


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SALT
@zerohedge
Dear @federalreserve comrades and @neelkashkari your passion to lift any offer and buy bonds at 121 cents of par in the open "market" is a masterclass in how to crush price discovery with an iron fist

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Dear @federalreserve comrades and @neelkashkari your passion to lift any offer and buy bonds at 121 cents of par in the open "market" is a masterclass in how to crush price discovery with an iron fist

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Dear @federalreserve and @neelkashkari your ongoing purchases of investment grade and junk bond ETFs to nationalize the bond market are a shining beacon of inspiration to central planners and ruthless despots around the world

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Dear @federalreserve and @neelkashkari your ongoing purchases of AAPL bonds to fund the buybacks that just made Tim Cook a billionaire are appreciated by all. Keep up the great work.

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Chicago: hold my beer
@ForexLive
Riots still in Belarus after the weekend election forexlive.com/news/!/riots-s

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@callieabost retweeted
For only the 2nd time since May Nasdaq had consecutive red days

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Based on the formatting style of the Fed's spreadsheets, one can easily guess at which ibank the analyst/associate worked at.

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I (Geoff) was shocked (and wrong). Can you put the performance of these ETFs in order? Answer is here: marketgauge.com/resources/mish

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From the weekend but still very relevant given today's action
@seeitmarket
Stock Market Rotation Emerges Amid Key Price Reversals seeitmarket.com/stock-market-r $GLD $XRT $TLT $QQQ $XLF

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If the President is looking to engineer a pre-election economic recovery, here's my advice. Implement a national strategy to beat coronavirus: Masks; ample and rapid testing; PPE where needed; lockdowns to stamp out the disease where it's spreading; vigilant contact tracing.


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