KOTOV.IN
RRTLXFeb 28, 11 AM UTC

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boasts
@JavierBlas retweeted
Some of the facts in this bravura John Arlidge review of a book about the tiny group of commodity traders who run our world are astonishing: viz, the family that owns Cargill boasts 14 billionaires - 14! -more than any other family in the world.



shot, taxes, tory, warned
A mounting band of Tory rebels have warned that they would be prepared to vote against attempts to increase taxes, but Downing Street has shot back - warning that they could lose the party whip if they refuse to back the budget - Sky


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tax
Rishi Sunak is plotting a new tax on online deliveries next month and a raid on the self-employed later this year, The Telegraph can reveal



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conservatives, covid
The Conservatives have secured their biggest lead over Labour since last summer amid signs Boris Johnson is benefiting from a “vaccine bounce”, the latest Opinium poll for the Observer has revealed.


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restrictions
The rate of expansion registered in China's official PMI readings slowed further in February. A reminder that the travel restrictions in play during the LNY break meant that workers could make a quicker return to their jobs than usual, the m'fing reading still missed exp.



tax
Entrepreneurs could be spared an expected hike in corporation tax in next week's Budget with a lower rate introduced for small businesses, The Telegraph has learned



covid, tax
Rishi Sunak is to set out plans to raise income tax by £6 billion as he outlines a “pathway” to finding an extra £43 billion a year to plug a black hole in the nation’s finances - The Times



covid, restrictions, vaccination
While China has pledged to ship hundreds of millions of #COVID19 vaccines abroad, domestically the rollout of inoculations has been slow, raising concerns that restrictions on international travel will remain until at least next year - FT

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bribe



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administration, covid, emergency, pandemic, shot, cnbc, fda
The Food and Drug Administration has approved Johnson & Johnson's #COVID19 vaccine for emergency use, giving the United States a third tool to fight the pandemic as highly contagious variants start to take root across the country - CNBC



coronavirus, covid, grants, pubs, restrictions
Chancellor Rishi Sunak is to announce a new £5bn “restart” grant scheme in his Budget to help shops, pubs, hotels and other businesses most affected by Covid-19, taking total spending on such grants to £25bn - FT

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27-7... and 30 scholarships! Another fantastic @utahjazz fight back and win #TakeNote

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crash

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crash
ETHEREUM $1,350; CRASH MODE UNDERWAY

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force
Bitcoin haters are out in full force tonight ***

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collapse

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republican, stimulus
FUCK OFF
@Fxhedgers
ARIZONA REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATIVE HAS PROPOSED AN AMENDMENT TO INCREASE STIMULUS CHECKS TO $10K

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Tweet of the weekend
@DowGoldEquals1
Replying to @DiMartinoBooth and @business
Yeah, but $5.2 trillion doesn't buy what it used to.

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pandemic
@DiMartinoBooth retweeted
Global stocks have lost $3.5tn in mkt cap this week almost equal to GDP of Germany as especially Tech came under valuation pressure from rising bond yields. Stock mkt P/E valuations have expanded significantly during pandemic & S&P 500 is now trading at 2021e elevated P/E of 21.4

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fda
FDA’s Dr Peter Marks on J&J vaccine: “At this time there's no concern about reduced efficacy in the older population.”

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I was asked Friday what the one factor is I’m following most closely given it’s UNCH ytd. Answer: the DOLLAR
@Schuldensuehner
It's the liquidity, stupid! S&P 500 dropped 2.5% this week as global liquidity shrank by $417bn mainly driven by the stronger Dollar.

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covid, emergency, pandemic, shot, fda
J&J CEO: “We will do everything we can to help bring this pandemic to an end, in the United States and throughout the world.” Co says it plans to file for full approval (a Biologics License Application) with the FDA later in 2021: jnj.com/johnson-johnso



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Very different yet similarities to the 70s for sure. I have some concrete signs to watch for both in the market and in the overall climate on the hill. This will be a big topic I hope to discuss on media this coming week.
@BrianWallis4
Replying to @marketminute
Maybe this is just a taste of what is to come. Seems like a lot like late seventies to me. I operated in the sky high rates of early eighties and don’t wish that on anyone

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The end user inevitably pays the price of consolidation. With average mortgage sizes of a record $428k, I’d say they’re definitely paying.
@MoHossain
Market concentration could be the easiest pathway to higher profits(?) twitter.com/mohossain/stat ht @carlquintanilla @DiMartinoBooth #home #housing #RealEstate #construction #lumber #architecture
Show this thread


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mask
@callieabost retweeted
Congrats to Coach Roy Williams on win number 900. That one was well-earned by the team and staff.

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mad, ruins

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police, lib

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It’s fascinating. But what the heck IS it??
@chigrl
zomg! twitter.com/BullandBaird/s…

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@DiMartinoBooth retweeted
good night everyone!!
@NaturelsWeird
A young condor is still huge!

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federal, treasury
@DiMartinoBooth retweeted
How will Federal Reserve respond to surge in yields? Danielle DiMartino ... youtu.be/wILuytkjo80 via @YouTube @KitcoNewsNOW and @DiMartinoBooth - really brilliant analysis.
How will Federal Reserve respond to surge in yields? Danielle...
Feb 25, 2021Guest(s): Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO, Quill IntelligenceThe U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly surged above 1.6% on Thursday. Until the Federa...
youtube.com



Thank you!! So happy you found value and have a few on your radar!
@Dintroverted
Replying to @marketminute and @YouTube
I like TOL, OXY, and ABNB the best From a technical perspective over the next two weeks for an entry on a two week or so swing. Thx!



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covid, emergency, gov, grants, fda



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WALKER KESSLER CAME TO EAT #GoHeels



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Imagine how good we could be if oh idk we didn't airball our layups and free throws #goheels



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Live look at my emotions rn #goheels

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Thanks, Jeff - doing what I can do with whatever I have, cheers
@JeffRatowski
Replying to @KeithMcCullough
KM - you’re the man! Coaching us subscribers, coaching young men in hockey, family man, etc. Thank you for your all you do.

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anxiety, crash, remembering
Thanks for remembering the #Quad4 #timestamp, cheers

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2023



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I think I could get addicted to listening in to train wreck interactions on Clubhouse.

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how they advertising apartments in nyc these days

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So happy for you - that's awesome. Happy Birthday!
@Caffein81777511
@KeithMcCullough Yesterday B-day lunch w my wife, "Smiling for years & you get out of bed excited everyday. We talk abt SO much before I was looking @ an exhausted overwkd man living for his business, this Hedgeye guy was really good for you" TK for a great B-day @KeithMcCullough


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@KeithMcCullough retweeted
It’s a lifestyle not a service - accountability, generosity and an open mind to always be learning/improving!!

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If this nonsense keeps up I might have to get a blue check mark. Ugh.

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mp

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@DiMartinoBooth retweeted
@chigrl
#US Aspiriant: Coming into 2020, the U.S. was running a trillion-dollar budget deficit, equal to about 5% of GDP Following passage of the CARES Act and the December relief legislation, $4T + structural deficit of $1T. Proforma calendar year deficit of $5T, about 23% of GDP

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tax, treasury

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pandemic
“With a cost of $1.9 trillion -- or 9% of GDP -- the House bill would drive the cumulative deficit impact of pandemic relief to $5.2 trillion.” @business Maybe the NEXT $5.2 trillion can go to productive measure. #MadeInAmerica

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So I have a copy cat (I still don't get it), but how the heck does this person have this many followers? All they have done is RT my stuff. Weird.

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This is fabulous except that TSLA was at 200 for the Haters one and is at 700 now.
@sspencer_smb
@hmeisler please see your pinned tweet! twitter.com/Marshmall0wpee

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@mcannonbrookes retweeted
The Fermi Paradox has 2 possibilities and both make me want to hug you. Either the universe is teeming with aliens, which means we’re a single family in the cosmic society. Or there’s no one else, in which case we’re stranded together on a tiny island in the vast darkness.

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microsoft, tax
@mcannonbrookes retweeted
In the last week, every journalist I spoke to about Microsoft’s support for a tax on links to news made their own comment about how cynical this is. It’s not just tech people rolling their eyes.

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Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]
Bullish (Fundamentals)
Bullish (Technicals)
Bearish (Fundamentals)
Bearish (Technicals)
597 votes7 hours left

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Your equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets):
Bullish (Fundamentals)
Bullish (Technicals)
Bearish (Fundamentals)
Bearish (Technicals)
1,019 votes7 hours left

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10. Foreign buying: "they took our stawks" Ferners are buying US equities like its 2000/2007 h/t @bullmarketsco $SPX $SPY

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9. Active investment managers are exposing themselves like never before... even the bearish ones are bullish h/t @elliottwaveintl $SPX $SPY

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8. Total short interest in S&P500 stocks Seems bearish but somewhat patchy track. At least a couple of episodes where a rundown in this indicator was followed by a chunky correction... h/t @mtimpane $SPX $SPY

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shocked
The results are in!! And quite frankly I should get my shocked face because I did not see this coming. Thanks to everyone for participating. I think this might have been our largest sample yet! When @Pointedmacro puts the chart together later I will tweet it out.

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7. CS "Bubble Index" ...so you're saying it can go higher? h/t @MarcRuby $SPX $SPY

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gross
6. ew gross, market has red spots on it h/t @bespokeinvest $QQQ $XLK $NDX

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need
5. Bearish breadth divergence (bit of a running feature): would we say this has been resolved now? Might need to see 50dma breadth get a little more oversold first... $SPX $SPY

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4. Slight case of indigestion following spike in bond yields. Support + 50dma holding for now... $SPX $SPY

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@JoelKruger retweeted
One year ago, Elijah Jackson nailed this epic buzzer-beater to win the Nevada state championship! #clutch (@NorthernNVPreps )

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3. The biggest beneficiary of low bond yields has been growth stocks... and of course, the biggest driver of the S&P500 over the past few years has been _____ h/t @AndrewLapthorne $SPX $TNX

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2. In absolute terms, US equities are extreme expensive. Up until the last couple of weeks they were cheap vs bonds. That is starting to change: another 50-100bps up in UST yields will make them expensive on all angles: topdowncharts.com/post/weekly-ma $SPX $TNX

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1. "UST 10yr yield now above S&P500 dividend yield" oh no, what ever will we do? $SPX $TNX



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"If you really want to do something, you'll find a way. If you don't, you'll find an excuse." -- Jim Rohn



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Awesome Edwina! Thanks!
@ArtfishEddie
Replying to @marketminute and @YouTube
I watched this and was inspired!

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alert, need
Love this. We need lines on the head to head.
@SportX_Project
NEW LEADER ALERT @tvaellatips has jumped back into the lead of the SportX Cup, with a small advantage over @BetPlaya. It's still anyone's tournament, and there are two more big days of betting before a winner is crowned! sportxcup.com

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dead
I did love Dines though...you know he used to book beautiful models to accompany him to the financial conferences to which he was invited to speak at...such audacity framed against a grey world...I had diner with him once in California but the best hero's are the dead ones...

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football
Confessions VIII April/May 2003 - Celtic Football Club and Chase...
Hedge Fund pirate Hugh Hendry and his co-host Chris Sweeney chronicle the inner workings of the uncorrelated and legendary Electica Fund's 15-years of operat...
youtube.com

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But back to the present - to NOW - transitory perhaps, but I'm off to the beach...

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football
Talking of which, or not?, I got a new weekly podcast video posted on my Youtube channel "Confessions VIII April/May 2003 - Celtic Football Club and Chase Coleman's $3 billion pay packet" - you want absurd? I'll give you absurd...

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need
And what about me and my imagined reality of T's yielding negative rates? Just think of how absurd the world might need to turn to invoke such a reality. I bet you won't be reading much about that world in the financial press for some time. Enjoy the fantasy of the bond vigilante

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So I'm left with mere transitory images of BTC briefly flirting with 60k. With @RaoulGMI committing himself to a life of serfdom - his beloved s-curve fancy - declaring his fealty to his feudal lord that he believes has only just started it's ascendancy to vanquish our fiat world

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I'm reminded that the purpose of pursuing paradox, if properly conducted, is to to demonstrate that one's imagined realities, that if they succeed in coming to fruition, that they create situations yet even more absurd...vive la révolution...or beware the revolt?

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...when such precious moments ceases to exist - POOF! - like a dream - as they must surely do - they're gone forever. Hmm...can a life spent with such transitory sensations really be worth serious effort? Or am I channelling too much Zenos and the art of proof by contradiction?

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Better a life spent wrestling with reality, in the here and now, rather than conspiring with an imaginary hypothesis? But then i read Schopenhauer again and as a committed fantasist my spirits soar, for he reminds me that you might call this celebration of NOW a common falsehood

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fake

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Looking back, i constantly bang myself for spening too much time living in the future - what the legendary James Dines referred to as a lower state of being, a dog of doom perhaps? When everyone knows that the greatest wisdom comes from being in the present, the yogi Ohm...right?

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This guy on his boat is having a wonderful moment all on his own.

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One hour left to have your vote count!
@hmeisler
Saturday Twitter Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
Show this poll

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Pretty high TRIN yesterday.

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We have the most epic blood orange rising moon over the Mediterranean right now. And it’s getting more red by the minute...



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I can personally confirm that this is what Korean dads and their sons looked like in the '80s in the midwest/south #Minari

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Japan learned this lesson the hard way!

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@SamRo retweeted
Today is the wide release of our film in the US. This is the story about a family and our shared humanity. I hope the feelings that went into making this connect with you. I am blessed to have worked with these humans.
@MinariMovie
Fall in love with the Yi family. #Minari is NOW PLAYING in select theaters and everywhere you rent movies! tickets.minari.movie/watch-at-home

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crash, mandates, stimulus
After the coming crash (not predicting one tomorrow) we will finally realize the global economic system is far better of with central banks only focused on gradual money supply increases in line with the GDP. All other fancy mandates & stimulus just create bubbles & inequality.



they played this twice at my senior prom
@PilotCristobal
I always loved the strings on “Thong Song”
Show this thread

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federal, treasury
"There are major refinancing needs for commercial real estate in 2021. Same for the corporate bond market. You have to be able to roll a lot of these bonds/loans over. You are seeing nervousness about over leverage and higher rates"
How will Federal Reserve respond to surge in yields? Danielle...
Feb 25, 2021Guest(s): Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO, Quill IntelligenceThe U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly surged above 1.6% on Thursday. Until the Federa...
youtube.com

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Time To Buy These Stocks? | Mish Schneider | Mish’s Market Minute (02.26... youtu.be/aP0Ocdrxjxw via @YouTube. Some hot picks with actionable strategic info
Time To Buy These Stocks? | Mish Schneider | Mish’s Market Minute...
Today Mish gives new actionable ideas based off of stocks earnings. Now that we are having a big correction, these are some names that reported and should be...
youtube.com

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@marketminute retweeted
Why Abu Dhabi is investing in innovative solutions to feed the world (Sponsored by ADIO) trib.al/jqUeg3U

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college
@KeithMcCullough retweeted
Hedgeye is better than a 4 year college degree in the liberal arts, or most other majors that fail to deliver real world returns.

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need
Whoever poses as a "long-term investor" in Gold that doesn't understand the Interest Rate Cycle and how it impacts the Gold price is a charlatan
@BatonRougeBorn
Replying to @LawrenceLepard and @KeithMcCullough
Buy&Hold may work as well. But having a little idea what economic factors gold was thriving in would help. We essentially need stagflation for gold to rise again.


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Get your votes in!
@hmeisler
Saturday Twitter Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
Show this poll



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Catalent, which also fills vaccine vials for Moderna, suffered a setback in the US when tuning up its automated visual verification line, which makes checks on vials, according to people familiar with the matter.

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covid, emergency, gov, shot, fda
Johnson & Johnson’s #COVID19 vaccine supplier Catalent had to resort to checking vials by hand for two weeks, one of the production problems that have contributed to the US gov't being set to receive millions fewer doses than it expected this month - FT

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apple, court, death, google
@marketminute retweeted
The U.S. Supreme Court will consider whether to declare unconstitutional a system that tech companies, including Apple and Google, have used to invalidate hundreds of patents and head off litigation



covid, merkel, shot, vaccination
German politicians from Chancellor Merkel’s CDU party have spoken in favor of certain privileges for people who agree to get a #COVID19 shot and even raised the idea of making vaccination mandatory at some point, F.A.S. reported - BBG



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covid, government, pandemic, restrictions
Italy’s government has decided to tighten #COVID19 restrictions in Milan, Turin and their surrounding areas, as well as in three other regions, in an attempt to counter an acceleration in the spread of the pandemic - BBG


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shocked
@KeithMcCullough retweeted
My kids were shocked I was listening and making notes from #TMS at the dentist @ 4 pm PT. The data & coaching is critical for me.

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Is your belief-system triggered? You're a quant. Back-test it. Equity Factor Exposures discount the ROCs (rates of change) of future cash flows
@RogerJBos
Replying to @Hedgeye and @KeithMcCullough
Valuation is crap? Does the stock market not discount future cash flows?



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Berkshire Hathaway employees: 2019: 391,539 2020: 360,174 yhoo.it/2jx2eqH

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Saturday Photo: Exotic Tastes and Deep Pockets: My Encounter with Ashera, the $25,000 Lab Produced Cat


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college


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@KeithMcCullough retweeted
Subscribe to the Macro Show and it’s in the daily download.

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Gonna head out for some exercise so more charts later. In the meantime, please vote!
@hmeisler
Saturday Twitter Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
Show this poll



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Don’t expect Berkshire to ever break up yhoo.it/2jx2eqH

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Areas where we are willing to learn, grow and expand into? • Multifamily Value Add LPs (not the right time in the cycle) • Litigation Finance (a lot of knowledge needed) • Tail Risk Hedge Funds (difficult to find the right manager)

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mandate
Our investment mandate and area of competence? • Prime Location Apartment Value Adds • Prime Location Home Developments • Development Finance • Stock Market Indices & Sectors • Precious Metals & Forex Exposure


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Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting will be held in Los Angeles this year yhoo.it/2jx2eqH

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50 trading days ago was 12/14 200 trading days ago was 5/12


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Warren Buffett's letter to Berkshire Hathaway $BRKA $BRKB shareholders here: berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2020lt

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update, I watched the first hour and felt like this

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10 dma of equity put/call ratio

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treasury
I wrote a short note about last weeks bond market action. Message from the Recent Bond Market Turmoil | Charles Schwab



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Call me a McGriddle man.

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@SamRo retweeted
Almost showtime for all you $BRK freaks out there. Breakfast at Berkshire. Could be an interesting morning.

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need



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some good counter-programming this morning

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covid, emergency, lockdown
New Zealand PM Ardern announced a lockdown for Auckland while authorities investigate a new case of #COVID19 in the community. The city will enter a seven-day lockdown from 6 a.m. Sunday, Ardern said at a news conference late Saturday after an emergency Cabinet meeting - BBG


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ban, covid, government
Germany plans to extend a transport ban for people entering the country from areas with a high proportion of #COVID19 mutations to March 17, Funke Mediengruppe newspapers reported, citing a government document - BBG


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covid, officer, vaccination

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What’s happening in retail with @PlacerAI. We had @ChernofskyEthan dissecting digital & foot traffic data. ​@Placer_ai Physical Standouts Electronics / BestBuy Mall (PREDICTION) Fitness ( $PLNT, $PTON, $LULU) Value retailers (TJ Maxx) Dark Kitchens youtu.be/VKUBTV8UfW0

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y’already know


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tv

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Saturday Twitter Poll The next 100 points for the S&P?
UP
58.5%
DOWN
41.5%
4,424 votesFinal results

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@KeithMcCullough retweeted
@KeithMcCullough what was the low end of the RR this morning? Oh, right.....nice job. Good set up for next week.

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@KeithMcCullough retweeted
SPX closed exactly at the bottom end of the risk range today. Fade your feelings and trust the process! @KeithMcCullough

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@KeithMcCullough retweeted
Some people watch Saturday morning cartoons...I'll be re-watching The Mucker! @KeithMcCullough


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@KeithMcCullough retweeted
Yes, @KeithMcCullough bought back shortly thereafter and launched a successful Bitcoin tracking product at @Hedgeye and is currently long #Bitcoin in Quad2. He has probably at least 2x or 3x'ed his #btc position by now

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Insider Ratio back down.

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panic
Citi Panic/Euphoria didn't budge last week.

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McClellan Summation Index still heading down.

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Naz new lows exploding.

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NYSE new lows climbing.

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SPY:QQQ. Big change in February.

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IWN:IWO. Value to growth

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XRT. It's messed up cuz of GME but retailers report this week and 75 looks key.

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XLI had a false break at the bottom. Will this one be one too?

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ARKK:QQQ. I missed the double top in Feb in this ratio because it was a divergence with ARKK making a higher high.

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Yield on Ten Yr at that so obvious resistance.

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Long term Bank Index

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Naz. How is it possible I do not folks chatting up this h/s pattern everywhere I look?

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Utes. They collapsed. Sad for me.

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Transports. A month ago I drew in that pattern that looked similar to late October. If it holds we're at that arrow.

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DJIA. Channel Check.

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Good Saturday Morning Chart Fans! The weather is warming up so let's get an early start!


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@TihoBrkan retweeted
“Negotiate, negotiate, negotiate. Everything is negotiable in the world of finance. And in the world in general” @TihoBrkan