KOTOV.IN
RRTLMay 29, 12 AM UTC


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Replying to

Great job Keith. Looks like SPX failed right at its TREND line today. I thought it was nice that the trade and trend resistance were only a few handles apart. Fractal setup if I am understanding the process. Thanks



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- Japan Retail Sales (M/M) Apr: -9.6% (est -6.9%, prevR -4.6%) - Japan Retail Sales (Y/Y) Apr: -13.7% (est -11.2%, prevR -4.7%) - Japan Retail Sales In April See Biggest Y/Y Drop Since March 1998



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- Japan Industrial Production (M/M) AprP: -9.1% (est -5.7%, prev -3.7%) - Japan Industrial Production (Y/Y) AprP: -14.4% (est -10.6%, prev -5.2%)


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Keith, people seem to be giving you a lot of shit… I don’t understand it… you are right on so many things, but when wrong they pounce… The market is divorced from the economy, you recognize that and are investing as such.. I get it… please keep putting out content!



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It’s research. I’ve been a subscriber for 3 months and my returns, partially from their process, has returned ~50x my investment in their research and ~10x my portfolio.


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Not if, WHEN bad days happen. There's no such thing as a good day that isn't born out of a bad one

Replying to @KeithMcCullough
A good process will keep you in the game if a bad day should happen.


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People I've played with only have guts if they believe in their process

Replying to @KeithMcCullough
AXP and DFS shorts were gut check rides all the way up to full positions. Paid off at the close. Process, patience, guts. 👍💰


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- Japan Tokyo CPI EX-Fresh Food (Y/Y) May: 0.2% (est -0.2%, prev -0.1%) - CPI (Y/Y) May: 0.4% (est 0.1%, prev 0.2%) - CPI Ex-Fresh Food, Energy (Y/Y) May: 0.5% (est 0.1%, prev 0.2%)



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- Japan Jobless Rate (Apr): 2.6% (est 2.7%, prev 2.5%) - Japan Job To Applicant Ratio (Apr): 1.32 (est 1.32, prev 1.39) - Japan April Jobs-To-Applicants Ratio Falls To Lowest Level Since March 2016


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Thousands of people. “No justice. No peace. Prosecute the police”

[VIDEO]
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Peaceful scene outside Government for the protest. It’s was good to see people exercising their 1st Amendment rights and quest for justice, Peacefully! Praying that it stays that way tonight and beyond. 🙏


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This biotech CEO got , and now is testing his company’s drug to try to treat some of its worst effects. Apellis’s joins us next on . Tune in!


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Working on ten new market studies for this weekend's video. "The grand aim of all science is to cover the greatest number of empirical facts by logical deduction from the smallest number of hypotheses or axioms." Albert Einstein



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Lloyds Business Barometer (May): -33 (prev -32)


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- South Korea Industrial Production SA (M/M) Apr: -6% (est -3.5%, prevR 4.7%) - South Korea Industrial Production (Y/Y) Apr: -4.5% (est -0.5%, prev 7.4%) - S.Korea April Industrial Output Mth/Mth Marks Sharpest Fall Since Dec 2008


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A big shoutout to the team. Your customer service is amazing. AL and MM, thank you! Not only are and crushing it daily on the Macro Show, but there’s also some amazing going on behind the scenes. Awesome all around!



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hey big man, your NATGAS rr has been immense 👍



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The 4th dimension of risk. . MAJORITY do not see one dimension of risk. Duck9 sees 1 1/2 dimensions of [credit portfolio] risk. Not 11/2 levels, 1.5. Diego Parrella with

[VIDEO]
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Now that alone;I may not agree with, but can , but please be humble about it.. As a retail investor, I want , , , , & willingness to own up to ones mistakes.. I don’t want the same old sell side garbage regurgitating CEO speak.


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Fed's Daly Says The Fiscal 'Bridge' Needs To Be Longer To Get Through Coronavirus Crisis : PBS Newshour Interview




100% right.

0:30
Diane Binns, who was president of the NAACP St. Paul from 2016-2018, went to Target to get her daughter’s meds. She says delayed getting her meds.…

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StockTwits is definitely worth a look, a few crazies on there, but it's basically designed to be a more stockmarkety version of twitter. Linkedin is becoming more of a content platform, but less realtime (and the algo decides what you see)

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| General Motors Says It Is Now In A Position To Increase Production To Meet Strengthening Customer Demand And Strong Dealer Demand


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what will you do if they shut down twitter?

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Thanks for having me on the show today!

5:04
Highlight: “Stock markets around the world are saying ‘there could be better times ahead,’” LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist says. “The trend is, less and less people are…



Sounds like a favorite. Fake coffee breaks.

Behind the fall of Luckin - Fake Buyers & Fake Employees

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Williams-Sonoma just printed a positive YoY comp with no stores open. Karen is more juiced up than early 2000s PRIDE fighters. Karen's statement to consumer bears:

[VIDEO]
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Mugatu channels with this retail/fighting mashup and then throws in some gratuitous Karen snark for the trifecta

Williams-Sonoma just printed a positive YoY comp with no stores open. Karen is more juiced up than early 2000s PRIDE fighters.…
(thread)



Oh, snap!!!

J.C. Penney bankruptcy Judge David Jones to angry shareholders: "No one ever loses equity in a bankruptcy case. Equity gets lost long before the bankruptcy gets filed."

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Utes green four in a row.




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+ many thanks to our producer on this one, !

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For data on the new coronavirus's spread, experts, media outlets and even the Trump administration have turned to a surprising source: A volunteer effort called . I spoke with co-founder about it for our latest podcast:

(thread)


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I hope there's no looting.

JUST IN: Protesters have gathered at Union Square in to demand justice for George Floyd


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Coffee w/ Herb

[VIDEO]


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Read thro' the coppolacomment article & at end see the attached very fine detailed dissection & explanation by David Allen Green [FT] of the statement as a .

The Cummings press conference was pure theatre. It signalled to the world who really runs this show. (cc this is my writeup of the comments I sent you…
(thread)

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"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked. "Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

The Fed takes these surveys seriously. Normally this would worry them.

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Truth:

J.C. Penney bankruptcy Judge David Jones to angry shareholders: "No one ever loses equity in a bankruptcy case. Equity gets lost long before the bankruptcy gets filed."


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Horizontal + Vertical This is what moving horizontal and then going deep and moving vertical looks like. Salesforce ( ) has done this organically, but in many cases through acquisition. They have roughly $9.8B of cash to play with...



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Really?

intriguing, let’s see the details
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No.

54,000 new infections in a week in England. Are we sure it's time to start opening up?



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Businessweek is following small businesses in one Seattle neighborhood for a year -- a troubling but vital window into how coronavirus could shape the city, its residents and countless others across the country

Today we’re introducing you to seven business owners along the Pike/Pine corridor in Seattle's Capitol Hill neighborhood. We hope you’ll check back in regularly to see how they’re…
(thread)



Idiots.

NEW: California considers business head tax plan that Seattle repealed With California’s unemployment rate approachi…
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Some of the Old Wall's 20+yr vets are all about "honesty" until you ask for their results


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Replying to

Where can I find timestamped trades too?

[VIDEO]


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Agreed on helping people preserve capital and compound returns. Do you help as many people as I do? After 20+ years of learning, what's your risk adjusted return on your retirement accounts in 2020 YTD?

Replying to @dallas101346 @pickedalready @KeithMcCullough
Sorry what is your point? Can you explain? By the way we all have the same goal which is to earn a solid risk adjusted return on our money and in some cases help others do the same. I’ve been in markets and investing for 20+ years I just think it’s important to…


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Replying to

GREAT coaching on Macro Show today KM! As our (Vancouver Thunderbirds) pro coach told me once... coach to the top 1/3... the middle 1/3 will elevate their game to keep up... and the bottom 1/3?... their parents will just be happy they came home with a sweat on! 😉


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Look at that handsome bastard. How you feeling?

Replying to @JeffMacke
Was that an espresso or latte? (We proudly serve 's Monkey Bite.)

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Thanks. Tomorrow's pre-game prep starts now.

Replying to @KeithMcCullough
You coached one hell of a game today. Hat tip, sir


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Federal Reserve: Factors Affecting Reserve Balances - Official


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Fed Buys $33.052bn For Its Secondary Corp Bond Facility In Week Ended May 27, Total Holding Now At $34.853bn


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pushing $80 AH. Really makes me want to go over to 's place for a very meticulous cup of coffee.

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U.S. Fed's Paycheck Protection Program Assets Rise To $49.2 Bln On May 27 From $45.09 Bln Week Before


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U.S. Fed's Total Balance Sheet Size Rises To $7.15 Trln On May 27 Vs $7.09 Trln A Week Earlier - Fed Data


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Today’s reversal left energy in dust & utilities in lead … nearly opposite in case of performance since 3/23 [Past performance is no guarantee of future results]


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Williams-Sonoma beats by 69c. Comp brand revenue growth positive! No guidance for the rest of the year. Americans love coffee. A lot. (Nice)

[VIDEO]
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look we KNOW Johnson brazenly lies about anything and everything. Why wouldn't he lie about this?

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Most of these Macro Troll Tourists may be unaware of what's called the Full Investing Cycle


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Home cooking FTW

*WILLIAMS-SONOMA 1Q COMP SALES +2.6%, EST. -11.4%


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| Costco Q3 20 Earnings Results: - EPS: $1.89 (Estimate: $1.92) - Revenue: $37.27B (Estimate: $37.05B)


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It's lies.

I asked No 10 to clarify what the PM meant when he said this. I didn't hear back anything yesterday. I asked again today. I still haven't heard anything.…
(thread)
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That'll work

New subscriber here! Up 103% on my IWM puts since your RTA announcement! Booked some gains at close :)…


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Uh, bearish on the Financials, Industrials, and Russell for the past 5 months, eh bud

Replying to @KeithMcCullough
I love it thanks for your insights, another guy who’s been bearish for past 3 months and the last two hours stock market sells off and you say your back. I love it! That’s awesome.

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reports earnings which are also bad. Gross profits as a % of sales of 11%. Down from 34%. Digital not great, wasn't really expected to be.


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What an amazing day for the process. Lot's of volatility. No emotion. Clean setups if you know what to look. RUT worked like a charm. 🙏


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The Mnuch will do his best to get it going tonight

Replying to @HedgeyeDJ @KeithMcCullough
Month end mark up over? 🤔

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Good day for a process (and RTAs)!


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I started with the macro show and risk range.... I admit it took some getting used to, McCullough will beat the FOMO out of you till you feel comfortable buying on red and selling on green.... i’ve since added real-time alerts and The Call. ... def watch past YouTube videos.



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The latest video is live! Are you confused yet? Stocks keep going higher, yet the economic data is historically weak. We discuss all of this and more.

Are You Confused?

Stocks keep going higher, yet economic data remains near historically weak levels. Everyone seems confused. LPL Financial Research Senio...

youtube.com

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New sub...you are magnificent. Keep it up hombre.



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I subscribed looking for a coach rather than picks, thanks Keith! finally I have a sense of what I'm doing and why I'm doing it



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Stockmarket Seasonality... PSA: only one trading day left to


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Highlight: "This is another sign of this U.S.-China fight that is only getting worse as we move towards the election," says about the two economies clashing over Hong Kong. "And in a vulnerable economic backdrop, that could be a big issue." More:

[VIDEO]

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PPT got to work in the last 5 minutes! Nice work Mnuch.


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one of the underrated features of RTA is just being able to see what you’re holding onto going into the close. gives me extra validation on my positions. not sure where else I’d get that from. 💪🏼💪🏼💪🏼


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Still no 4 day winning streaks for the SPX


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If the reversion trade was a movie it would be called: 48 Hours


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Join me on with today's special guest of to talk market in rally mode. What's the risk/reward here? 6pm ET/3pm PT only on .


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Wait, have we broken the cycle of crappy claims and an up market ?


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AH HA!!! WE GOT HIM THIS TIME!!!

TRUMP SAYS WHAT TWITTER CHOOSES TO FACT CHECK OR IGNORE IS NOTHING MORE THAN POLITICAL ACTIVISM AND IS INAPPROPRIATE

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Nordstrom earnings after the close. How bad will they be? Analysts predicting a loss. down 9% today and 56% YTD.




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What happened to the nice day we were having?

$3.6 billion to sell market on close.

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Damn $3.4 b for sale MOC


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Argument in AFR recently that Australian restrictions for pandemic were excessive rests heavily on claim that herd immunity is near in the US and elsewhere. This is way off the mark. Intellectual honesty requires retractions.


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Many of New York's nursing home residents were not available for comment.

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Chris Rock tells Governor Cuomo "You bring me calm. You bring me joy." He is ALL OF US right now.

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No.

Bozo may be "drawing a line under the matter", but I am not... Anyone else?

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Shelter in place - Day 63: After spending an hour on hold, I am having doubts about my calling being, "very important" to the co. that failed to give me a refund for my return. This is why actual shopping in a store is better. You can harass them in person.


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Agree with this. Sacking Cummings would be a public event, but privately his influence would continue.

Should we move on from Dominic Cummings? (No) Should he be sacked? (yes) Will it change anything (not much sadly) Here is my personal take.…
(thread)

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Tweet of the Day!

If Trump makes Twitter add a Tweet Edit button, he could get reelected.

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🔥

Protestors Criticized For Looting Businesses Without Forming Private Equity Firm First

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3% higher on strong Jenn Sherman ride. “It’s not about me” said a sweaty patriot. “It’s about catching f-Ing Rory McIlroy”

[VIDEO]

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Pent up demand.

' U.S. sales in May exceeded pre-COVID levels. If that doesn't tell you something about America idk what will

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You would have thought an academic would have remembered to add the date 18-19 May Before all the Cummings stuff kicked off This probably means rather little ⬅️⬅️⬅️⬅️

Who would make best Prime Minister? -by class Upper/middle class…
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US Pres. Trump To Sign Exec. Order On Social Media In ‘About 30 Mins’


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Turns out staying closed and alive was a decent strategy (so far). Up against pretty soft comps next year.

(thread)

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Mixed tape today using 2:56 pm ET data; some good, some not so good.


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An oldie but a goodie...

There are almost as many funds investing in US listed companies as there are listed companies!


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“The big challenge is to become all that you have the possibility of becoming. You cannot believe what it does to the human spirit to maximize your human potential and stretch yourself to the limit.” -- Jim Rohn




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“To know what you prefer instead of humbly saying Amen to what the world tells you you ought to prefer, is to have kept your soul alive.” -- Robert Louis Stevenson and everyone wants to tell you what to think... (to suit their own agenda/team/bias)


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Please enjoy these Tweets about up 4% today and 50% since March. Good early crowds are key for the all-physical places. They have very stale inventory to be moving.

Burlington Stores remain closed. Locked up tight since Sunday. The website doesn't even let you shop, consistent with the March 5th announcement to give up on digital.…
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Those NAAIM folks clearly aren't talking much to the AAII folks. Exposure Index to a recovery high.


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RTRS] Fed’s Kaplan: Growth Forecast Assumes Consumers Are Willing To Travel, Eat Out And Re-Engage Broadly In The Economy - Massive Increase In Testing Is Critical For Consumers To Be Willing To Re-Engage


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[RTRS] Fed’s Kaplan: Downside Risks To Forecast Without Ramped Up Testing



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[RTRS] Fed’s Kaplan: US Econ. Has Bottomed, Expects Growth In H2 2020, And In 2021 - Under Baseline Forecast, Unemployment Falls To 10%-11% By End-2020, Under 7% By End-2021


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I think you are barking up the wrong trees.

Why won't the PM let his SpAd go? Here's my hot take given four years of reporting on this Five Things Dominic Cummings Could Have Over Boris Johnson …

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great line from Macro today 'consistency matters, passion matters, so does process"


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In the last two weeks (05/16 and 05/23), a further 2.4 million PUA + 4.6 million State have filed. Thus, 31 million + 2.4 million + 4.6 million = 38 million Which on a labor force base of 153 million (38/153), yields an unemployment rate of 24-25% ?


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JOBLESS: Jobless claims are likely tracking in the vicinity of ~38 million now As of May 9th, there were 31 million people collecting insurance (State: 22.7 million + PUA: 7.8 million + Other: 0.44 million)


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I'm up for the YTD as a subscriber, so you must be doing something wrong :D


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Customers: If has abandoned the store to looters please see yourself out. Don't endanger yourself protecting product.


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Replying to

Shorted IWM pre-market. Tickled to get RTA while on the golf course! Great stuff! Shut up newbies! 35 years of investing, hedgeye is best stuff I’ve seen.



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Per last tweet, final burst in laggards may prove fleeting. reversing while other cyclicals treading. May limit upside from here. I'm hedged.


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This is *precisely* the same argument Enoch Powell and others made against Ted Heath's decision to admit Ugandan Asians (Powell argued that, despite their British passports, they weren't really British and should go "back" to India). Wrong then, wrong now.

Replying to @MrRBourne
No Taiwan should accept them because Taiwan is Chinese. Refugees should ideally have somewhere to go, at least as back up. When there is a rich stable country very near composed of the same ethnic group that is as good as that back up goes. Britain…
(thread)

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- can you tell me what Hedgeye products you subscribe to? I'm trying to decide among the plethora of options there. Thx in advance.


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NYSE breadth is kinda crappy today. +350


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"They called it the Crisis of 2020 — an unspecified calamity that 'could rival the gravest trials our ancestors have known' and serve as 'the next great hinge of history' or 'some catastrophic failure in the world economy.' That was 1991." New article on our guru

30 years ago, they voiced skepticism that the Boomer generation could handle what was coming: “You may feel some disappointment in the Dan Quayles and Donald Trumps who have been among the first of your agemates to climb life’s pyramid.”…


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Except for Dominic Cummings, obviously.

Boris Johnson actually just said, in relation to a totally unrelated question: “We are not saying that people should be free to travel across the country to stay in other people’s houses.”
(thread)

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Delivery Data: DoorDash market share now stands at 45%, which is 17% above UberEats. An acquisition of GrubHub would get Uber to DoorDash levels. In some ways a defensive move... Uber also has lowest price per transaction. *PS -Square has investment in DoorDash


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If Chancellor goes ahead with 20% employer contribution to wages of furloughed workers PLUS national insurance and pension costs then expect a very large rise in unemployment in August

(thread)



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Right! Because that’s exactly what Britain (and the US and everyone else) did: “get their economy recession prooof”. LOL - what planet are you on?

Fine, let Britain jump in and bail out countries who refused to take painful measures to get their economy recession proof. But I guess it's easier blaming the Netherlands rather than telling South-Europe a painful truth.


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this in itself speaks volumes.

Coronavirus: PM stops Whitty and Vallance answering questions on Cummings


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He did in fact commit an offence.

We're told we must apologise to Demonic Cummings since be committed no crime. Have his fans apologised to Labour and other politicians who they accused of breaching confinement (and just like Cummings,…

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PM repeated his defence of his adviser and didn't take 2nd question, so I couldn't ask if he still believes Cummings acted 'entirely legally' as he had said, when police say they would have sent him home if they had stopped him in Barnard Castle

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Executive order on social media should be issued by 5pm today, says .

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Problem for Vallance and Whitty is that by not answering factual questions about the Cummings episode and public health, it could be said that that itself is being dragged into politics.

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*reaches for the gin*

Piers right again.

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May manufacturing at -19 vs. -22 est. & -30 in prior month; contraction in activity driven by further drops at durable goods factories—particularly metals and transportation plants


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I did notice that Trader Joe's removed all those 'last minute' products they keep at the checkout.

Sales of impulse buy items dip as social distancing alters checkout lines


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Laggards (transports/financials/real estate/materials) playing catchup and adding fuel to this burst.


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Two major indices I am watching here are the Russell 2000 as it nears its 200 day MA (while lagging) and the Nasdaq 100 nearing all-time highs. Bulls want to see RUT breakout while NDX consolidates.


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Correction - My mistake here. The "weekly" setup only made it to bar 5 before flipping a couple weeks ago. Currently on bar 2. Thanks for pointing out

S&P 500 Index will record bar 8 of 9 "weekly" DeMark sell setup tomorrow. 9 will record next week. Could limit near-term…

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probably won’t want to dwell on anything before May.

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The nativity (and offensiveness) is stunning Where would the Durch like to invest their absurd 11% of GFP current account surplus? In Xi’s China? In Trump’s US? Or in neighbouring countries with who they trade and interact mostly? Oh, and what’s with the Dutch tax haven cheats?

"Not a penny to Southern Europe" Dutch leading weekly news magazine presents mustached southerners as lazy profiteers while…
(thread)

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No sharing food. No clinking wine glasses. Yet when I saw this picture it looked to me like they were sitting inside clear plastic cups turned upside down.

Demonstration of dining under a plastic shield in Paris as restaurants prepare to reopen… Think I’ll wait.


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Among WH priorities Kudlow pushed today: -- Deductions for restaurants & tourism -- Payroll tax cut -- Capital gains tax cut -- "Back to work" bonus -- Full expensing -- Ex-Im $ to onshore supply chains

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Kudlow says WH looking at using EX-IM bank to encourage firms to onshore from China



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[13:47:13]: FED'S KUDLOW SAYS CHINA MAKING A 'BIG MISTAKE' TO TAKE OVER HONG KONG


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Thoughtful interpretation by of what really means the EU Commission recovery proposal

It’s game on for an EU of common purpose via

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S&P 500 Index will record bar 8 of 9 "weekly" DeMark sell setup tomorrow. 9 will record next week. Could limit near-term upside (and usher in some volatility in June). -->


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Movers: Rotation from Growth to Value continues. Financials and Retail stocks lead the big gainers while Tech names lead the big decliners.


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S&P Cuts Rolls-Royce To Junk


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He's not wrong

price action today is "fuck it, i'm in"


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Thank you to for allowing me to chat with your clients today!


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RUT did not get the memo today


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Kudlow coming up on cnbc




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If you've ever been a part of the types of fades that have been seen in the past and you are looking at these markets, you're apt to be a wee bit nervous. Think of it as running a trail and eventually it's going to get ...



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Quest Diagnostics gets EUA from FDA for COVID-19 self-testing kit


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House approves bill giving flexibility to small businesses in how they use PPP loans. The vote was 417-1.


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HE A GANGSTA, YO!!! FO REALZ!!!

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NEW: Police have arrested a man for allegedly beating an elderly man in a nursing home in Detroit, Michigan, after videos of the incident surfaced online.…

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US 7-Year Notes Sale: - High Yield Rate: 0.553% (prev 0.525%) - Bid-Cover Ratio: 2.55 (prev 2.56) - Direct Accepted: 12.4% (prev 12.3%) - Indirect Accepted: 63.6% (prev 66.4%) - WI: 0.544%



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My new WashingtonWise Investor podcast is available! I discuss the possible road to compromise on the HEROES Act; implications for investors of efforts to delist some Chinese companies; attempts to improve the small business loan program; and more.




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Animals.

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Texas shopper robs store, ties two white female clerks up with tape, and lights them on fire.

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Investors’ appetite for junk bonds is growing as retail funds are expected to add about $6 billion for the week ending May 27


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RBC is Going There


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Good feeling when you hit the button on your own and then Keith comes through with the RTA confirmation


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In truth, there isn’t that much meaningful to say about China’s economy right not. They are in uncharted waters, like we and the rest of the world are. It’s not clear which of the devastating effects of coronavirus will prove ephemeral, or more enduring.

(thread)

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Yep, being a Spider Monkey is for people who don't have a well-rounded Global Macro Game

Replying to @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye
Longs have been on fire, love hearing the dialogue. And thanks for quieting all the SPX questions. Can we get a little more insight on currencies next Macro, appreciate all the hard work!


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the accompanying explanation within the RTA is just as valuable (if not more so) than the alert itself. THANK YOU!


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Thanks for the last RTA , confirms my trade.



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"I'm gonna come at you like a spider monkey."

[VIDEO]

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EU says post deal with UK "extremely difficult, but still possible". told Germany's fishing, competition conditions & governance rules toughest areas: "we will not make progress if British continue to pick & choose best of both worlds for themselves."

(thread)

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How long are we supposed to put up with this bullshit?



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Continuing claims fall for the first time since February



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"Looks like there's a run on the old stock market"

[VIDEO]


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Source: I've had to censor countless jerks on Pragcap who think the forum is their personal playground.

(thread)

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My view on the "fact checking" controversy: Most of the internet is private property owned by private citizens. It is not a public square operated for public benefit. If the owners of those sites want to censor and edit our comments on their property then that's their choice.

[VIDEO]
(thread)

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House Voting right now on Payroll Protection Program Flexibility Act. It would change PPP to extend time to use the loan from 8 weeks to 24 weeks. Changes requirements making 60% of loan used on salaries & 40% on other items like utilities or rent. It also defers payroll tax


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I am also a colt in your stable, I'm what Cain was to Abel, Mr. Catch-me-if-you-can. Uncanny.

[VIDEO]
(thread)

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Well, since you are declared libertarian, I assume you believe you don’t need any government at all?

Replying to @ErikFossing
Well, show me any other government worth supporting. There isn't one.

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We just recorded the latest ! Here is some behind the scenes footage.

[VIDEO]



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But he's still smoking.

Feline good: French cat survives coronavirus infection

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A investigation found around 110 publicly traded companies have each received $4 million or more in emergency aid from the Paycheck Protection Program; of those, 12 recently used offshore havens to cut their tax bills


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PM confirms that up to six people from different households will be allowed to meet together outside - as long as they keep their 2m distance. This includes parks and, for the first time, in gardens and other private outdoor spaces.

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Boris Johnson announces all five tests have been met - and lockdown easing will begin on Monday. But PM says next steps will be “limited and cautious”. Schools and non-essential shops first.

(thread)

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Or how to put out a fire using gasoline - complete notes by the Fed

The ’s bond buying facilities have led to a surge in corporate bond issuance, likely pulling leverage even higher

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GOAT western theme song:

Jon Bon Jovi - Blaze Of Glory (Official Video)

Music video by Jon Bon Jovi performing Blaze Of Glory. (C) 1990 The Island Def Jam Music Group #JonBonJovi #BlazeOfGlory #Vevo

youtube.com
(thread)

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Replying to

Macros show "Do I coach 12 yr olds same as I coach 82 yr olds. Consistency matters, Passion matters, so does Process. ...First time I've changed my avatar."


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Getting great feedback on this new ultra-transparency product vs. Old Wall = The Call

Great exchange with on The Call this morning. Very helpful.

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NEW: PM announces that government is satisfied that all five of its tests are being met. Says people will now be allowed to meet in gardens in private outdoor spaces.

(thread)

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Replying to

Moving monkeys see buy, nothing else.


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tonight. HOD

Steampunk Heart GIF
Replying to @michaelsantoli
And that Americans really love the hell out of their coffee and the rituals that go with it. If we're going to drink it at home every day we're going to step up and get a grinder and maybe some steampunk…

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Don't let the smile fool you. I still think a house is a bad investment. Renting a Bobcat, however, is an investment with limitless upside.

(thread)



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what if it had always been burning, since the world's been turning?

Can a bottle of hand sanitiser catch fire in a warm car? It’s possible, but it would almost certainly need something to spark the fire. …

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Guys, I've put all my human capital into this Bobcat. I even put some dog capital into it.

(thread)

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MLHR

Google says it will let workers expense $1,000 worth of office furniture via

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latest govt briefing on @ now - PM expected to unveil next steps in easing the lockdown


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Keir Starmer hasn't said that much about the Cummings episode but he's just said this 👇

Boris Johnson should have drawn a line under the Dominic Cummings saga but was too weak to act. The public have sacrificed so much for the health of our nation…



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Coming up on in 10 minutes! See you there.


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Dating Tip from Non-Daters: Don't let the restaurant pick your social distancing method. Wearing an automated plastic shell says "I'm proactive and stylish".


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they’re listening SO WELL are you kidding me??? 14/10 for all

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Golden retriever puppies comforted by a talking dinosaur. Happy Friday.
(thread)

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GT Voice: Growing uncertainties in Canada raise alarm for Chinese companies.


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The extradition of has become insignificant to the US, while continued detaining of her will further harm Canada. And with the raging pandemic and the impact of the US unilateralism, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may face hard times ahead.


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Deeply concerned at China's proposals for legislation related to national security in Hong Kong. If imposed, & I will explore options for a path to citizenship for BNO passport holders. UK will continue to defend the rights & freedoms of the people of Hong Kong.


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The ’s bond buying facilities have led to a surge in corporate bond issuance, likely pulling leverage even higher


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This Biden guy has got a decent Twitter game

Two tweets from the same day in October.
(thread)

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Other than the surge in Saudi oil imports, the other highlights of the weekly report were: a) another big negative adjustment factor (-999,000 b/d), signalling EIA is likely overestimating oil production, and b) a recovery in proxy for gasoline demand to 7.3m b/d |


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Japan has conducted 2.2 tests per 1000 people, compared to a rate of 16 in South Korea and 43 in the U.S., according to this fascinating story. Testing may not be the be-all and end-all of a successful covid response.

(thread)

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In northern Iraq, one oil company got paid a "nil amount" in April for the 36,000 b/d it pumped. The reason? The monthly average price for Dated Brent was less than the $21 a barrel discount for its crude | Full story with is here:


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Join us tomorrow at 10am for our Daily Coronavirus Webinar. Hear key insights from , Former Chancellor of the Exchequer, on the impact of COVID-19.


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And still, the government basically sticks with its meaningless reply to everything virus related: “we made the right decision at the right time”. That anyone - literally anyone - supports this government is beyond me.

Sufficient data worldwide now exists to conclude that, to date, the UK has the highest rate of excess deaths in the Coronavirus pandemic in the world…
(thread)

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Japan says it found a winning Covid-19 strategy by focusing on places where clusters of cases start -- like gyms, bars and other crowded venues

(thread)



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oh my days

I see your Deutsche-branded wellies and trainers and raise you : Deutsche Bank boxer shorts that say ‘A passion to perform’

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After reporting a $4 billion mark-to-market loss on their massive $70 billion (7.7 trillion yen) CLO position, Japan's Norinchukin Bank says they are done buying and will try to go back to focus on actually making loans again to its farmers & fisherman



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Cummings and his mates fooled people into thinking that their opinions mattered. But "the people" were just pawns in the power game. Cummings and his mates were only ever interested in manipulating us for their own ends.

(thread)

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US crude import from Saudi Arabia



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US oil inventories: 7.92 million barrels expected vs -2.17 million barrels expected US gasoline inventories: -724,000 vs 400,000 barrels expected



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Another 2,123,000 Americans filed initial unemployment claims last week 👷👷‍♀️ - @calculatedriskblog




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In case you were wondering...what is this SDR thing - the view of the IMF on the SDR

THIS IS A BIG DEAL RIGHT HERE - been talking about this coming for a long time

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reporting a 8m bbl increase in crude stocks. Primarily due to a 2m b/d import jump. stocks eased on lower imports while distillates continued to rise. Production reduced by 100k b/d while implied gasoline demand rose by 0.2m b/d


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OMG. I have just retweeted Piers Morgan. I need a lie down.


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The Prime Minister, backed by all his most senior cabinet ministers, said Cummings didn’t break lockdown rules, which is why he didn’t have to go. The Police have now concluded that he did. Either fire your adviser - or your Govt’s credibility is destroyed.


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It's a bigger deal than many realize. Inside the IMF, Merkel has always been the biggest opponent of new SDRs. If she's onboard, the rest will follow.

THIS IS A BIG DEAL RIGHT HERE - been talking about this coming for a long time

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refuse to believe anyone does this, sorry

Cleaning fanatics are soaking their loo seats in the bath to clean them - but some reckon it’s just too gross

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Whatever the merits of his argument, the Health Secretary grinning and laughing about public health measures is not a good look.

1:52
“It’s priceless Kay, I’m usually accused of delaying these things and bringing them in too slowly.” denies claims the government…

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My personal view: your civic duty is really *not* to download the app. Your civic duty is to nudge the government into taking a better approach to the whole thing. That’s best done by *not* cooperating with this fundamentally flawed idea.


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US DoE Crude Oil Inventories (W/W) 22-May: 7928K (est -1911K; prev -4982K) - Distillate (W/W): 5495K (est 2500K; prev 3831K) - Cushing (W/W): -3395K (prev -5587K) - Gasoline (W/W): -724K (est 150K; prev 2830K) - Refinery Utilization (W/W): 1.90% (est 0.90%; prev 1.50%)

(thread)

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The Cummings press conference was pure theatre. It signalled to the world who really runs this show. (cc this is my writeup of the comments I sent you the other day)

(thread)

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What are you watching? Why?

1:23
*CHOICES* You can watch Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorkin squabble about politics on CNBC…

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Great MacroShow today, the point you made about not shorting the stuff the old wall is talking about all day and focusing on the bearish trends will stick with me.


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Because of you I had my 401k retirement in a defensive position long before the crash! Only wish my wife had listened to me instead of her Wells Fargo financial advisor.


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Replying to

Maybe on the Macro Show instead of QA you can have a few sessions on teaching everyone to fish in the FX/Rates/Credit/CRB ponds, todays how you rank asset classes in terms of info value was good stuff. US Equities are a casino. Could then post up on HEU.



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Keith McCullough thanks again, for teaching


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ANALYSIS: The PM asked the public to make up their own minds, and they have. Whatever Cummings’ fate, the PM has been weakened by this affair and government policy undermined



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Breaking the rules is newsworthy. Not breaking them is not. Simples.

And again - my local paper this time - only half the story. The bit about self-isolating in Durham NOT being a lockdown breech seems to have slipped from the headlines

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Good to be able to speak with the Prime Minister earlier regarding restrictions and the battle against COVID-19 across the United Kingdom. We’re moving in the right direction but it will be a slow journey.


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When your pup loves you so much, they want to be right with you when you work



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May 12-27 poll of >250 analysts across Asia, EU & Americas (sample size varies with each topic): *70% believe 2020 mkt lows won’t be re-tested *43% believe earnings’ low point is Q2 *27% believe earnings’ low point is Q3 *30% believe earnings’ low point is Q4 or later


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BOOM !!!!!!!!!!!!! IT'S BACK !!!!!!!!!!!!

Premier League set to restart on 17 June

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Completely Unrelated: Best Hotel Chain to move your 14yr olds into during the lockdown: A Marriott w/ a concierge lounge. Anyplace will do, really. The key is getting him free snacks and wifi. Also, the key cards get him in the gym. It's like sending him to prep school.

(thread)

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With all eyes on South China Sea, U.S. Navy dispatches two warships to East China Sea: Japan-based USS New Orleans and guided-missile destroyer Rafael Peralta from TR strike group


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April pending home sales -21.8% m/m vs. -17.3% est. & -20.8% in March … y/y (shown in chart) -34.6% vs. -28.7% est. & -14.5% in prior month, which puts series at worst level in (relatively short) history (back to early 2000s) … NE region hit hardest at -48.2%


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trades softer after the EIA reported a 109 bcf increase in stocks to 2.6 tcf, above the 104 bcf forecast. At this rate of increase and given the outlook for weaker exports and domestic demand, the risk of hitting capacity may begin to attract some attention.


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All over the World the CoronaVirus, a very bad “gift” from China, marches on. Not good!


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lower despite Popeyes US same store sales gains popping 40%. Here's a realistic Popeye, to haunt your dreams forever.

"Realistic" by


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US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (BCF) 22-May: +109 (est +105; prev +81) - Salt Dome Cavern Natural Gas Storage Change (BCF): +3 (prev +5)


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Attorney General has replied to my letter. I sought assurances she would uphold the rule of law, in the light of her tweeting in favour of accepting Cummings' account. She gives no assurance. Instead she gives a disingenuous account of her earlier tweet.



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I suppose you could call this world-beating.

Highest death rate in the world with almost 3 weeks delay on Spain, Italy and France. To name a few.

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US Durable Goods: Headline drop second largest since early 1990s



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Not cash on the sidelines

*GE CEO SEES NEGATIVE 2Q CASH FLOW IN $3.5B-$4B RANGE

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Folks back to the Drug Stocks today



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Congrats to Yeti on going public 4 times. Nice thinking outside the box with the thermos and share offerings.



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Pleasure to appear!

On the podcast today, Chris Bailey covers news from the following companies: easyJet FirstGroup Cineworld & Boohoo



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Election year shenanigans. Be thankful we’re getting any economic data at all still 🤦🏾‍♀️

WHITE HOUSE WILL NOT RELEASE UPDATED ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS THIS SUMMER IN BREAK FROM LONG-STANDING PRACTICE -WASHINGTON POST

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Bloomberg Consumer Comfort this past week ticked up for first time since mid-March … sentiment peaked ~1 month before market earlier this year, but has taken nearly 2 months to follow market’s rebound




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Replying to

You're the only one who got it right. "Is it ok to move your 14yr old to the Best Western (until the shutdown is completely over)?" was the full question. It seemed wordy.


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Replying to

And tasty gains they were too! Another good call


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Replying to

Good call on too. We planning to close that today or letting it ride?



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US Pending Home Sales (M/M) Apr: -21.8% (est -17.3%; prev -20.8%) - Pending Home Sales NSA (Y/Y) Apr: -34.6% (est -28.7%; prev -14.5%)


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Great day to book more gains in my fav US Equity Sector Style, Healthcare Stocks



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Headline inflation in the is likely to approach the flatline in May. European Editor previews Friday's announcement here:


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Replying to

Here I thought it was going to be a hotel poll...best western..


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Twitter Essay Poll: Best Western for a 14yr old. (Note: "But actually Star Wars is like a Western" is the wrong answer. I want horses and guns and bonding and such.)

(thread)


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BoE Reverse Auction For GBP1.5 Bln +20-Year Gilts Offer-Cover Ratio: 2.92 (prev 3.04)


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The S&P 500 has gained 35.7% from the March lows. This would make it the greatest bear market bounce ever. Which opens the question, is this not just a bear market bounce?


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Oh yes. This is true. Please do see my pinned tweet!

Replying to @hmeisler
Rule 1: (Read the pinned tweet)

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“Be a first-rate version of yourself, instead of a second-rate version of somebody else.” – Judy Garland


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When Joe K speaks, i put it on MUTE!


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"...They cant print jobs and they cant print cashflow..."



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New day, new at bat, and he’s back in rare form! Great macro show today, thanks Keith. 👊🏼

[VIDEO]

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Replying to

Keith is no ordinary coach. He could be making more money for himself and wealthy clients, if that's what he wanted to do. I'm seeing a different value system, which is why he's helping you to make it for yourself.


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1) I subtweet others. If you don't like it, please do not complain, just ignore or unfollow. 2) I discuss market indicators. You can either Google them or read my columns . I just don't have time to respond to all questions. 2/2

(thread)

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I seem to have picked up an awful lot of new followers today (thank you!). Perhaps I ought to say a few things though. Welcome! I enjoy positive interaction. Negative Nellies not so much. 1/2

(thread)

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Begging for America to be like Argentina !! 😂🤣 should trademark this



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Great Macro Show this morning. Your discussion around IWM and RVX was a real "lightbulb" moment. Had been struggling with the persistent rise in the RUT and this really helped put it all into perspective. Thanks. Still learning after all these years.



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Gents - this morning was one of the best Macro Shows. Nice job. Also, your coaching works. After nearly two years listening, learning, and reading, I'm taking independent action with or ahead of HE alerts. On the right path!


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JUST IN: House announces that Dem leaders have pulled the FISA bill after President Trump told Rs to vote against it

(thread)


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Great again on macroshow and great explanation on Universe/gravity across assets. Funny how it goes from less volatile (FI, Fx) to more vol (Eq, Crb). It looks like the solar system: sun=vol and planets are asset classes lol. Thanks !


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More than 40 million initial jobless claims the past 10 weeks. But it is also lower week-over-week a record 8 weeks in a row.



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: Join our experts , and as they discuss the latest on the state of the market, looking at how US shut-ins might reverse, and plotting the path to the next meeting. Register here:


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Where is the poll now????

REUTERS POLLS-MAJOR STOCK INDEXES WILL NOT REVISIT THEIR 2020 LOWS, SAID 76 OF 111 ANALYSTS

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EXCLUSIVE: The White House won’t issue its usual "mid-session review" of the economy that would show the extent of the U.S. downturn precipitated by the pandemic, two people familiar tell



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COVID-19 tests in the US dropped to 285k yesterday, lowest since May 10. Also, 6.5% of tests were positive, highest since May 16.


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Presumably that means 46% believe it has.

54% of Americans are worried the market hasn’t bottomed out yet. - quarterly study


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Visual representation of the recent rotation (chart shows rotation over past 16 weeks) beginning to favor cyclical value (Financials) over defensive growth (Consumer Staples) stocks. Why does this matter? Read about it here->


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peeking over $20 in the Champions' Hour. High point since April (which was 10yrs ago, adjusting for 2020 time lag). Still a bit off the highs. 50%. Which is "a Bit" to many people.



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The prospect of a joint European fiscal response has helped ease upward pressure on the Swiss Franc & means there is light at the end of the tunnel for the SNB following its recent bout of FX interventions. A further SNB rate cut now appears unlikely.



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Another good one

we're going to go ahead and keep our Maintain rating, with an eye on becoming more constructively equal-weight on an incremental going-forward basis. our conviction is the easy money's been made. markets hate uncertainty. …

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Bullion Banks Preparing To Cut Positions On CME COMEX Exchange, Some By Up To 75% - RTRS Sources - CME Considers Allowing Delivery Of Gold In London Against Futures Contracts



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April’s durable goods decline not as bad as worst on record (-18.8% in August 2014), but back-to-back declines in March & April were exceptionally steep

(thread)

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THIS IS A BIG DEAL RIGHT HERE - been talking about this coming for a long time

GERMANY'S MERKEL SAYS IT MIGHT BE WORTH HAVING INCREASED ALLOCATION OF SDRS TO THE IMF FOR DEVELOPMENT FINANCING Get our news in real-time:


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Brilliant

Market could go higher from here. But might go lower. Potentially sideways. Cautiously optimistic and guardedly pessimistic. You've been warned.
(thread)




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Stock market rotation continues as Dow futures lead, Nasdaq futures fall. China OKs Hong Kong national security law while Boeing 737 Max production resumes.



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U.S. 🇺🇸 Capital goods orders down sharply for a second month, sending the recovery further away as inventories may continue to rise, output gap widens and overcapacity increasing.

(thread)

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Dominic Cummings’s father-in-law undertakes an epic ride across Britain on Barack (so called because ‘the horse is half black and half white’) with retainer and secretary in tow.

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U.S. 🇺🇸 GDP -5% vs -4.8% expected. Non-farm gross value -6.5% All segments in negative except structures.

(thread)

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3/ The reluctance of David Frost, the PM's chief negotiator, to engage on the EU's level-playing field proposals has led Barnier to believe the UK is ready to accept no deal and trade tariffs in order to have full regulatory independence, the source adds.

(thread)

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2/ Barnier told senior MEPs that regulatory alignment – the level-playing field – and fisheries remain the most 'divisive issues', a source in the room tells me. More interestingly, Barnier seems confident that a fisheries agreement is the easier of the two to do a deal on.

(thread)

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1/ Michel Barnier offered a downbeat assessment of the post-Brexit trade talks to the EU Parliament's Conference of Presidents today. Barnier repeated, almost word-for-word, the letter he sent to opposition MPs in Westminster – confirmed the EU's support for a two-year delay.

(thread)

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Need a real risk mgt process so that you don't lose another 20-40% in stahks? Timing matters... Tune into the Macro Show LIVE now


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PPT works FOMO Futures hard on US Jobs (any different than Lehman marking things to "model"?)

Replying to @KeithMcCullough
Futures up!!

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JOBLESS: 2.12 MILLION this week …= 10-week total to 40.77 MILLION


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Your bio: “professional gambler and amateur trader with opinions”. yeah, I I’ll ignore you and focus on the advice from the guy who has successfully navigated full investing cycles before (and who has helped me make lots of $$$ over five years)


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You're welcome, thanks

Replying to @KeithMcCullough
I’m not one to comment on Twitter much but I want to join in with everybody else here and reiterate the gratitude we have for what you do and how incredibly well you do it. We’re with you all the way. Thank you sir.


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Please post your trades, let’s say going back to 2008 for starters, so we can independently verify your trading success. You know Keith’s are all posted and time stamped for transparency. We are standing by...



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just listening to conversation with for like the 5th time... nice one guys.


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Congrats to on simply refusing to give SSS. "I see you, jackals. Slobbering with delight w/ your headline porn ideas. 'Because of Covid we will be giving neither SSS data nor any guidance'. Continuing with occupancy..." ANF saucily offered on the call, by implication


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BREAKING: Novartis agrees to manufacture a vaccine being developed by Harvard, Mass Eye & Ear and Mass. General. Human trials are expected in the second half of this year. has more:

[VIDEO]

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You don't need any (ANY) back ground in finance to benefit from Hedgeye. You just need to watch, listen and engage. A stronger edu platform will help.


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Good feedback - the most precision is when i hit the button (because it implies all the decimals!), but will try

Using your RR product for currencies. Anyway we could get the decimal point to the thousandths on those? I know it's just what's probable, but still would be helpful since they trade at that…

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1Q2020 GDP revised down to -5% (q/q ann) vs. -4.8% initial; pers consump revised up to -6.8% vs. -7.6% initial; gross private invest revised down to -10.5% vs. -5.6% initial; res invest revised down to 18.5% vs. 21% initial; exports unchanged & imports revised down marginally


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US Labour Sec Scalia: Jobless Rate Around 10% This Year Achievable – FBN


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Imagine focusing on retail and missing the dollar stores.

[VIDEO]

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States with largest increase in claims: *CA (+31.8k) *WA (+29.3k) *NY (+24.5k) *FL (+2.3k) States with largest decrease in claims: *GA (-65k) *NJ (-27.3k) *KY (-22.1k) *LA (-11.6k)

(thread)

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Initial unemployment claims at 2.123m vs. 2.1m est. & 2.446m in prior week (revised up from 2.438m); relatively good news for 4w moving avg., & continuing claims, which fell to 21.05m vs. 25.68m est. & 24.91m in prior week (revised down from 24.91m)

(thread)

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2.123 million people filed initial jobless claims for the week ended May 23rd. 40.759 million people have filed in the last ten weeks. 13.5% of the US labor force was receiving unemployment insurance benefits as-of May 16th.

2.438 million people filed initial jobless claims for the week ended May 16th. 38.93 million people have filed in the last nine weeks. 16.0% of the US labor force was receiving unemployment insurance benefits as-of May 9th.

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April durable goods orders -17.2% vs. -19% est. & -16.6% in March (revised down); new orders ex-trans -7.4% vs. -1.7% in March; ex-defense -16.2% vs. -17.4% in March; non-defense ex-air -5.8% vs. -1.1% in March

(thread)

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A lot of data. Overall either in-line or not quite as bad as expected. Core pce falls to 1.6% = Fed keeps rates low as it undershoots its 2% inflation target.


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The Evening Star, Washington DC, October 16, 1918


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This will be a Big Day for Social Media and FAIRNESS!


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down 5% on a staggeringly bad quarter. Loss of $3.90/share in Q1 isn’t great. ANF closed stores on March 15th (a week ahead of any state and before ). Says NA biz at 80% LY levels in open stores. I’m more interested in numbers on the 2nd and 3rd weekends for the latest



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US Personal Consumption Q1 S: -6.8% (exp -7.5%; prev -7.6%) - GDP Price Index Q1 S: 1.6% (exp 1.3%; prev 1.3%) - Core PCE (Q/Q) Q1 S: 1.6% (exp 1.8%; prev 1.8%)



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Canadian Current Account Balance (USD) Q1: -11.10B (exp -10.01B; prev -8.76B)



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US Durable Goods Orders Apr P: -17.2% (exp -19.1%; R prev -15.3%) - Durables Ex Transportation Apr P: -7.4% (exp -15.0%; R prev -0.6%)



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US Initial Jobless Claims May-23: 2123K (exp 2100K; R prev 2446K) - Continuing Claims May-16: 21052K (exp 25680K; prev 24912K)



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US GDP Annualised (Q/Q) Q1 S: -5.0% (exp -4.8%; prev -4.8%)




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If you are interested, here are the astronauts for the SpaceX launch ahead, here they are



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Futures are flat after a big day on Wall Street. Currently, overnight futures are as follows: S&P 500 Futures (-0.20%) Nasdaq Futures (-0.70%) Dow Industrials Futures (+0.14%) Crude Oil Futures (-3.8%) Gold Futures at $1712


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Novartis now in vaccine race as well, agreeing to manufacture a vaccine from Harvard/Mass Eye & Ear/Mass General that uses AAV as a vector. Researcher Luk Vandenberghe notes “bc AAV is an established industry, we can tap into available capacity.”


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Spain retail sales fell 31.6% y-o-y in April.


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👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

BREAKING GOOD NEWS ALERT: New Zealand has announced it no longer has any patients in hospital being treated for coronavir…
(thread)

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Here is the 4hr chart - formations are much more active - showing the newest primary buy zone at 2930ish



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Replying to

Screw that, I'm long Hedgeye and THE process


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“If you devalue by 20%, I will tariff you by 20%” Trade Wars natural defence vs Currency Wars Aggressor loses competitive devaluation edge, left with domestic inflation & bubbles

Replying to @Charlie_Ledezma @Hedgeye @RealVision
Pretty interesting insight by re China, weakening currency offset with tariffs

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No fakes here. Which bull market are you talking about? The one on bonds, gold, silver....or gold miners? Rocks beat stocks. Go back to you dog...there's a good boy now



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Replying to

Process > FOMO!


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For the record...I don't believe that the sophomoric Q's Keith answers on the MacroShow are what really has become the issue. He's a coach, and every coach will come back to it's weakest player to pick him up if he's willing to try but an UNGRATEFUL player that doesn't listen...

[VIDEO]

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In an unusual formation, we have a breakout with momentum, but no swing buy signal - we can certainly use intraday formations ( I will add another for you to see but the daily formations show cautious bullish formations



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German CPI EU Harmonised (Y/Y) May P: 0.5% (exp 0.4%; prev 0.8%) - CPI EU Harmonised (M/M) May P: 0.0% (exp -0.1%; prev 0.4%)



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German CPI (Y/Y) May P: 0.6% (exp 0.6%; prev 0.9%) - CPI (M/M) May P: -0.1% (exp -0.1%; prev 0.4%)


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Thanks, folks. I'm not an easy follow ("cartoons, boxing, dogs and stocks plus DAD STUFF!" make a tough filter). I appreciate those who have come along for the ride. (Someone please thank the bots and people who have me on mute.)


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Financials on winning streak, but thanks to compounding, loss of 43% requires gain of 75% to get even; with only 31% returned since low, Financials are < 1/2 way there (lowest of any sector); Health Care closest to previous glory, with 86% of work done



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Senior EU diplomat says the bloc does have a close relationship with on some fronts (economic above all). But some offsetting clarity: "It is clear that in others (areas), we have huge problems." EU foreign ministers discuss , tomorrow.


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Amazing perspective from young spelling bee competitor on just now: “You’re not competing against other spellers. You’re competing against the dictionary. ...The only thing you can control is what *you* do.”


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The SEC is surely right to be raising concerns about the spread of greenwashing by companies that make misleading claims about their environmental credentials. It’s important ratings can command the confidence of investors.

SEC chair warns of risks tied to ESG ratings

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i'm considering making my own paneer, but this is some next-level time-wasting

2:57
Nothing but net 🏀🤯😳

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Really liking the new format on Bloomberg with @FerroTVand


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Cash vs. Credit Card/Venmo/etc. I have noticed some reopened places now say 'no cash, please use credit card'. Some even saying Venmo ok. Obviously it benefits the cc/pypl group but anything else with a knock on effect?


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IDEA: Want to silence whiners...call them out. Simply tell anyone w a gripe abt a short position to email pic against the rest of the LONG sd of the portfolio as well. When they have to show they were just looking for picks the shit ends right away.

[VIDEO]

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I'm long of Healthcare (which is inside the and has much better performance)

Replying to @charleswhite816 @KeithMcCullough
Charles, underweight SPY? ........ pretty sure I understand that Keith is not interested in being “any” weight SPY. I can’t speak for him but IMO I believe he has basically said that many times! seems clear to me!

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Welcome aboard a better way , Compound Returns

another one in your team, just subscribed, thx Keith

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With a positive outlook are gold miners attractive? In this update takes a closer look at miners and their struggle to deliver returns matching that of the underlying metal



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producers are starting to turn the taps back on as oil prices tick up, but have we already passed the point of peak shale? and discuss how fast ‘leakage’ in the US patch will impact supply. Tune in:

Competitive Intelligence: When Will the Shale Dam Break?

Shale producers are starting to turn the taps back on as oil prices tick up but are wary of throwing the still delicate market out of balance. Will shal...

energyintelwebinars.podbean.com

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In May alone, 27 firms reporting at least $50 million in liabilities filed for bankruptcy (highest since 2009) … 98 filings YTD (also highest since 2009, which saw 142 filings in the first 4 months of that year)


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Nearly all S&P 500 stocks are now trading > 50-DMAs, but less than 1/2 are trading > 200-DMAs


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Cummings is not pleased with .

I had to decline Newsnight interview last night on Mr Cummings as I find to be extraordinarily aggressive,unnecessarily rude, biased & confrontational to point of intimidation. This behaviour would not be tolerated in any normal workplace so why do we…

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As I said here, Cummings's behaviour was a clear display of dominance.

As Cummings squatted in the Rose Garden, declaiming that The Prime Minister's time was 'just about the most important resource in government', he: kept the Public and Press waiting 1/2 hour AND kept the PM waiting to start his own Broadcast. DCs time…

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On this day in 1962 was what is widely considered the first flash crash ever. It was the largest Dow point drop since the Crash of '29. There were no hedge funds, algos, dark pools, ETFs, internet or high frequency traders. "History doesn't repeat, but man does." Voltaire



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Good write up this morning on the NYT


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Facebook’s own research shows the platform is polarizing the country and driving people into extremists groups, but Zuckerberg is more worried about being called mean names by Trump.

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In memoriam: Gerald Appel, 1933 – 2020 Sad to share that my friend had died of old age. He was one of the giants of modern technical analysis and a successful money manager. His best public memorial is MACD indicator that he invented - it resides on countless computers worldwide


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Try to be like the turtle—at ease in your own shell. —Bill Copeland


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Thursday: US-China tensions high but risk still on. Lots of Fedspeak today. Watch for comments on yield curve control and other next steps.



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| Dollar Tree Q1 20 Earnings: - Revenue: $6.29B - EPS: $1.04 - Enterprise Comparable Sales Ex-FX: +7.0% (exp +5.1%)


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WTI doesn’t want to seem to fall back into the $20s... for now But there is length in positioning



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CME Market Movers Commentary:

Equities are watching two events, the economy reopening and renewed U.S.-China trade tensions. Expert traders talk equities rotation and dollar outlook.


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CME Bob Iaccino – YNTK Commentary:

Today’s need to know with : 1️⃣ Stocks rally on proposed EU stimulus 2️⃣ Possible U.S. sanctions on China …



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CME FX Commentary:

Euro trades to top end of its recent range. Bob Iaccino discusses.

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The art piece is called "Catch me should I fall" and is from 2010

(thread)

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Moscow could support an extension of the May-June crude oil production cuts agreed with Opec-plus for another two months, according to Russian press reports




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| Saudi Arabia And Some Other OPEC Producers Want To Extend Current Oil Output Cuts Of 9.7Mln BPD Until December - RTRS Citing OPEC+ Sources - Russia Has Yet To Agree To The Move



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Amazon offering 125,000 full-time jobs to seasonal employees


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BoE’s Saunders: Pros And Cons To Outright Yield Curve Control - Like Negative Rates Would Not Rule In Or Out


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AAII Bulls +4 Bears -3.




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BoE’s Saunders: Neutral Rate Of Interest Is Below 2.25%, Unsure How Much Lower - Expect Neutral Rate Has Fallen By More Than A Few Basis Points


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Hedge funds have been net sellers since April


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Replying to

THIS is what I'm talking abt...between my long TLT core allocation & playing CALL OPTIONS on the long side of my portfolio I've made multiples against any 1-3% loss in shorts. I'm going to $ in AGAIN this a.m. NO BS...option money is dedicated to vaca's & we go on NICE vacations.


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So many places to make money. So little time for SPY chasing




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BoE’s Saunders: Possible That Gilt Yields Would Not Fall Much Below BoE Bank Rate With More QE, But Still Worth Doing


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BITCOIN: another great day for my Long position here (yesterday) seeing follow-through this AM


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Retail investors have continued to follow the megacap growth trend, increasing their holdings of the largest stocks in trading accounts



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Germany Doesn't Expect Lufthansa EU Deal Until After June 1 – DPA


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Oil prices originally driven by demand factors at onset of crisis, but supply factors now have more influence


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FX: stealth signal to short GBP/USD at the top-end of its Risk Range working for subs



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After failing to bounce back recently, Johnson Redbook same store sales have finally ticked up from recent lows


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My Bond Market signals helped me start calling for the crash in the US stock market, in January don't forget - I rode out the FEB FOMO, and liked it

Replying to @KeithMcCullough @Hedgeye
The bond market is the tell not fomo


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BoE’s Saunders: Nothing To Add On Negative Rates Beyond What Bailey Told Parliament Last Week - Would Not Rule Out Negative Rates, That Does Not Mean I Would Necessarily Rule It In


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Latest survey from shows that individuals still very likely to delay bill payment, with rent topping list



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France's 10yr Yield plummets to -0.06% as its depression/recession deepens


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Sentiment & stock prices have continued to disconnect if looking particularly at UM’s measure of consumer confidence ... spread between 1m % change in S&P 500 vs. UM sentiment has never been wider


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Neither The Yield Curve nor Treasuries TREND signal budged during this week's uniquely American stock market FOMO



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New York has come back from past crises (pandemics, crime waves & terror attacks), but key then & now remains whether citizens feel safe


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UST 10yr Yield pulls back to 0.67% ahead of another Depression report on US Jobs



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Replying to

Started with a couple of 25bp nibbles in EWI & EWP yesterday after actually “listening” to Coach Mucker during the MS instead of whining.



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Recent survey by found that online grocery shoppers are most concerned that items will be out of stock; & notes that this may portend decline in order growth once lockdowns are further eased, as demand for service will come down


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GOLD: beautiful buying opportunity yesterday signaled in both and the miners Gold up another +0.7% this AM and I remain long of that vs. Short Oil


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Investors have started to put money into equities again for first time since mid-April, but fixed income inflows continue to dominate (on rolling 5-day basis)



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OIL: right on time, resumes its Deep Deflation pattern this morning with Brent -1.5%


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Small caps recently outperforming large caps, but still have a ways to go to get back to pre-bear mkt levels; while growth hit all-time high relative to value in mid-May (surpassing the tech bust levels) but has since come down [Past performance is no guarantee of future results]


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SPAIN: usually the 1st European Equity market to go red (post another bear market bounce), goes red 1st, again here


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EUROPE: opens with a whimper taking France's bear market bounce towards the top-end of its Risk Range




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German Baden-Wurttemberg CPI (M/M) May: 0.4% (prev 0.4%) - CPI Baden-Wurttemberg (Y/Y) May: 0.7% (prev 0.9%)


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May survey of U.S. adults found that of 18% contributing less to retirement, single largest reason was loss of income ... survey also found that 31 million plan to use or already tapped retirement funds



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Asia (ex Japan) had no US FOMO overnight with Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, etc. all closing in the red



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Australian Stocks +1.2% on the bear market bounce signaled immediate-term TRADE within their Bearish TREND overnight




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CME Energy Commentary:

WTI down 5% after reaching near-term high of $34.81. Dan Deming discusses.



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CME Metals Commentary:

Gold bounces after declining since mid-May. Todd Colvin discusses.


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CHINA: Hang Seng down another -0.7% overnight taking its Full Cycle Investing to -30.2%


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Elderly Resident tried to stop the rioters from looting Target in Minnesota

[VIDEO]
(thread)


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Italian PPI (M/M) Apr: -3.4% (prev -1.3%) - PPI (Y/Y) Apr: -6.7% (prev -4.9%)



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BoE’s Saunders: With Limited Monetary Policy Space, Less Scope To Get Economy Back On Track - Safer To Err On Side Of Easing Too Much, Then Tighten If Needed



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BoE’s Saunders: Unlikely Data Available At June Meeting Would Negate Case For Further Stimulus



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BoE’s Saunders: Risk Management Considerations Played Considerable Role In My May Vote To Raise Target Stock For Asset Purchases


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HEALTHCARE: had a textbook bounce off the low-end of my Risk Range yesterday and remains Bullish TREND Remains my fav Sector Style, long side, with +7.4% y/y EPS growth in Q1 vs. Financials -35.1% (fav Short)


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I'm going to watch the Diego Parrilla interview for a third time today before the open this morning. Your guests expand my mind and help mature my process. Great job!




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High Yield Spread = +643bps over (reflects the fact that The Fed can't CTRL+Print Corporate Cash Flow)


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French Jobless Total Rises By 843,000 In April (+22.6% M/M) To Record 4,575,500 – RTRS



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Canadian CFIB Business Barometer May F: 52.5 (prev 53.2)


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EARNINGS: season ending and PRE VIRUS earning declined -7.7% in the aggregate, -35.1% for the Financials


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What they “can get” - Or “maximum financial contribution”. Or same thing, just a twisting of words?

This Tweet is unavailable.



Jaws snapping shut...for the time being



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Germany's VDMA: More Than 40% Of Companies Expect Further Decline In Problems On Supply Side In Coming Three Months - RTRS


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Today's Saxo Market Call podcast now out: Today pours cold water on the EU recovery package enthusiasm, we talk , US equity mkt divergences, crude oil, gold and more. Today's slide deck:



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| Kremlin Declined To Provide Additional Comments On Russia's Position On OPEC+ Oil Output Cuts Deal – RTRS



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Replying to

Morning! Maybe remind subscribers that the word "Hedge" in Hedgeye might contain a clue on how to construct a portfolio. If you are long Treasuries and Gold you can afford to sit out your "right-sized" shorts... All the best to you and from bear-market Europe..


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China bans subversion, secession, terrorism and "foreign interference"


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This is not going well.

What it looks like for some tier 2 tracers trying to login this morning...

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Today in 1999, In Milan, Italy (after 22 years of restoration work) Leonardo da Vinci's masterpiece The Last Supper was put back on display


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Themis CEO: Potential Themis Covid-19 Vaccine To Be Available Globally – RTRS - Will Be No Preferential Distribution - Clinical Tests To Start Soon In France, Belgium - Planned To Quickly Extend To America



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Dutch source 🇳🇱 says position hasn’t changed re loans v grants in ‘We’re going through the lengthy proposal. Our first reaction is our stance is still the same as last weekend. We’ll go into negotiations on that basis’




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At last.

SPOT ON ❤️👇