KOTOV.IN
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Coronavirus Stocks Bid Sharply Higher in Pre-market Gilead +6% Moderna +18% Alpha Pro Tech +34% Lakeland Industries +42% NanoViricides +20% Novavax +28% Inovio Pharma +15% Co-Diagnostics +42% Allied Health Products +77%


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The Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak in China has battered LNG markets. A government-mandated halt in commercial, industrial and social activities countrywide has plunged gas demand and swelled inventories.




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Headwinds hit virus narrative.



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US Opening Calls: 26557 -1.51% 3070 -1.46% 8708 -1.87% 1532 -1.35% 3427 -2.45%




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Before market opened on Monday, answered "what is Bird Strike" question (tweet shown in image). still and always applies, especially over next 48 hours.




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The continuing to show weakness from buyers to take control of price action - selling pressure continues at each bounce - the lows this morning will be key to hold near 3059. Sellers are still pushing the edges wi...


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Crocs seem silly but if you're looking for a consumer case study on consumer shares as retailers report you could do worse. posted strong numbers and decent guidance, ex the virus which they concede is beyond their control. Shares down over 20% in the last month. *Shrug

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What the oil chart looks like today - - selling appears to be slowing BUT bounce zones will continue to find sellers - 46.9ish possible support but no place to catch falling knives - let the chart stabilize


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“The world has to wake up to the fact that we’re in a pandemic,” ’s Dr Michael Osterholm says on


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Coronavirus Patient In California Was Not Tested For Days - NYT


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Before market opened on Monday: "Bird Strike procedures may call for some profit-taking this week on positions we started building in Jan 2019 (over a year ago)." Will continue to implement Bird Strike until market proves something.


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aren't great for kicking Bears. Shares look down slightly after the co beats estimates handily, forecast virus rev impact $20-$30MM in Q1, $40-$60FY. Slight raise, ex virus. Which a) we're going to hear fairly regularly b) isn't a ton of solace right now.

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They say there is no place to hide. I guess they got so caught up trying to sell their sell side research to clients to keep buying STOCKS. They forgot about UST bonds, Gold, Cash and Utilities. Go Hedgeye! Maybe BobA should subscribe to Hedgeye...


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TREASURIES: Full Cycle Investors with (large) core Asset Allocations to T-Bonds continue to get paid UST 10yr Yield down another -5bps to 1.28%


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these guys must have subscribed to the macro show recently


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GOLD: getting Full Cycle Investors paid again this morning, +0.6% wit immediate-term upside in the Risk Range to $1687/oz


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OIL: moves into crash mode, deflating another -2.5% as it should in


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German Government Considering Possible Stimulus Programme In Case Coronavirus Epidemic Hits Economy Hard - HB


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RUSSIA: stock market down, hard, again - 2.7% as continues to deflate Oil prices


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Did you sell the bounce in US stocks yesterday morning? Our subscribers did




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GERMANY: good sale by our subscribers on the Bullish to Bearish Phase Transition DAX down another -2.2%


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INDONESIA: stock market hammered for another -2.7% loss overnight, -9.7% in the last month Still Short EM and Long USD


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Certainly headed lower on EUR strength that we’re seeing across the board. Plus, SGD selling likely fueled by scare too. Headed below 0.65



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KOSPI: down another -1.1% overnight and -8.5% in the last month = Bearish TREND



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JAPAN: "stocks" smoked (again) for a -2.1% loss overnight and the Nikkei remains Bearish TREND


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For those who believe globalization has been a significant force bringing and keeping inflation down globally ... do you believe deglobalization could represent upside inflation risk (if not near-term, longer term)?



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Market-based probability of 3 rate cuts by approaching 90%


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WSJ shows yesterday had the first TRIN reading over 2.0 since the selling began a week ago.




thanks Anne Marie!!🙏🏾


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With many people quarantined or on orders to work from home, & global supply chains seizing up, consumption of fuel via transportation declining; oil prices have swooned: S&P 500 Energy sector -3% yesterday & -11% MTD, while S&P GSCI Crude Oil -20% YTD


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Check out . Discussed this last week too and now the double bottom at 0.83 seems to bearing out with price now above 0.85. I like it higher still




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Fear & Green Index from now in “extreme fear” territory




Despite breaking above 2.05, follow thru didn’t hold. down big gunning for big time 2.00 support. As GBP weakness accelerates on headlines, watching for a break lower still


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Today in 1940, Martin Kamen & Sam Ruben discovered carbon-14


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Meanwhile, in FX land, the pound was crushed as UK authorities took a hard line on trade negotiations with the EU stating that they were willing to operate without a deal if one was not negotiated in four months.

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You ever hear the saying "some of the best trades you may ever take are the ones that make you puke?" I assume there is A LOT of that going around right now.


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Some office construction beginning in in the morning. Shifting some things around in preparation. Some great titles - next up “Diary of a Hedgefund Manager” looking forward to it.


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Top of the risk mgt morn from California


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Jet fuel as indicator: proxy for global travel demand, while also having a good track record in mirroring world trade volume, which is now weakest since GFC


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As much as it may be too soon to suggest rising recession risk due to (perhaps not too soon for counties most affected), below shows that worst stock market performance (posts-WWII) has come during 6m period leading into recessions


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This is good news guys. People are recovering.


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i mean, the gvt did part ways with its CFO

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A record 219 CEOs left their posts in January; a 37% increase from December & 27% increase just since previous high last October


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Despite the sharp selloff, strong balance sheet stocks have still reigned over those with weak balance sheets


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Deglobalization continues, as rolling 10y variance across GDP & exports/imports across 30+ countries continues to plunge


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Sub-sectors within oil continue to struggle, with all falling by more than 20% since end of 2018


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Inverted VIX curve, with April futures trading 1.3 points above May’s ... last seen during short vol implosion in early 2018



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Shares and moved lower when Washington unveiled plans to combat . Analysts say global growth will suffer from the outbreak, but they can't predict by how much. European Editor provides a rundown of the latest news here:



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Replying to

Global coronavirus searches and near perfectly inversely correlated.


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AAII Day Traders are truly the best real life example of my pinned tweet. Bulls -10 to 30. Were 20 in Oct. Bears +10 to 39. Were 48 in Aug. 4 wk ma of bears 32. Was 43 in Aug. Getting there.


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BOFA CUTS 2020 GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST TO 2.8% TO LOWEST READING SINCE 2009


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UK PM Spokesman: UK Has Different View To EU On Future Relationship


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No surprise —-AAII numbers inverted. Bulls drop from 40 to 30 and Bears go from 29 to 39. Re: 20 point swing see pinned tweet


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To all those shouting "Boris Island", may I remind you that environmental considerations were significant factors in the decision to rule it out. Those environmental considerations have not gone away. Boris Island is no more viable now than it was five years ago.


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BTW...if you're a company, and you're NOT using coronavirus to manage down expectations...you're doing it wrong...


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my new go-to reason for binning meetings


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A continued rally in depends among other factors on a continued drop in US real yields. Currently at -0.23%, the lowest since 2013 and a key source of inspiration for hedge funds positioning as per the chart.


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I live in hope that one of these days you will research a subject before shooting your mouth off about it. Today is not that day.


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Here’s govt’s opening formal bid on trade deal - explicit that PM might walk away in June if there isn’t enough progress


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“Just you watch me. Walking away . Don’t try and stop me. Don’t you dare try and stop me. Really, don’t. Nothing you could do. (Please stop me.)” Sigh. And so it begins.


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Bank Of England's Cunliffe Says UK Has Weak Domestic Inflation, Despite Domestic Cost Pressures



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Bank Of England's Cunliffe Says We May Be Seeing A Trend Decline In British Firms' Margins And Profitability



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Bank Of England's Cunliffe Says We Expect Domestic Cost Pressures To Feed Through Into Inflation, Push Inflation Slightly Above Target


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Hmm, how about expanding Manchester or Birmingham, since HS2 is going ahead?


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Heathrow ruling shows Grayling still failing even after he's gone.


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A full 25 bp rate cut priced in by April, a second by July and a third by next January.


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The report saying Devolution is the answer is another must-read, I suspect But if this is the scale of the problem: "after housing costs are considered, there remains a (incomes) gap of around 5% compared to London" you'd wonder what the fuss is

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A fifth day of selling has taking aim at $52/b (61.8% Fibo extension) before the December 2018 low at $50/b




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Boris won't have to lie down in front of a bulldozer then.


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If you ever think HS2 or Crossrail are stories of painful delay, airport expansion is the champion - decades of indecision. (I made this for three and a half years ago!) The village that nearly became an airport 40 years ag... via

Heathrow? Gatwick? The village that nearly became an airport 40 years...

Heathrow, or Gatwick... The debate over more airport space near London has been raging for more than 40 years, as Adam Parsons reports. ...

youtube.com



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Our is hiring a new Senior Microeconomist to join the team! Ideally seeking expertise in areas such as labour, education, productivity, trade, regional economics, or economic measurement Below the instructions on how to apply! 📕👇 v. grateful for retweets!


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OMG it's snowing. In the South East. I don't remember seeing that on the weather forecast.



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How Long Is The Medium Term? Monetary Policy In A Low Inflation Environment


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BREAKING: Court of Appeal has upheld challenge to Heathrow third runway on climate change grounds, concluding that the government's ANPS (airports national policy statement) was "unlawful" because it failed to take into account the Paris Agreement

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German Auto Association VDA Says We Also See Scenario Of Decline Of China Auto Market Of 7% Due To Coronavirus Outbreak, Previous F'cast Was Down 2%


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UK Is Said To Be Willing To Trade On No-Deal Basis With EU If Talks Are To Fail


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- Eurozone Economic Confidence (Feb): 103.5 (est 102.8, prevR 102.6) - Eurozone Industrial Confidence (Feb): -6.1 (est -7.2, prev -7.3) - Eurozone Services Confidence (Feb): 11.2 (est 11, prev 11)



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Gilead To Widen Testing For Antiviral Drug In Hong Kong, South Korea, Other Asian Markets - SCMP



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Gloriously surreal ECJ ruling as EU judges order European Intellectual Property Office to reconsider ban on registering the expression ‘Fack ju’ as a trade mark


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and they say there's no such thing as bad publicity



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- South African Jan Producer Prices Rise 4.6% Y/Y - South Africa Jan Producer Prices Rise 0.3% M/M



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❄️☃️


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💬 The first Oral Statement will be by the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster on 'The Future Relationship with the EU'.

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in fairness I did say it was probably wrong. Normally, the point at which i'm asked on to normal telly to talk about markets is the peak. Not this time.


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Update on : Two further patients in England have tested positive for , bringing the total number of UK cases to 15. Patients have been transferred to specialist NHS infection centres. More info: ▶️

Two further patients in England have tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the total number of UK cases to 15.
The virus was passed on in Italy and Tenerife and the patients have been transferred to specialist NHS infection centres in Royal Liverpool Hospital and the Royal Free Hospital, London.

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says cinemas, gyms, karaoke places etc can reopen Mar 2.: Earlier this morning was cited as saying 's cases were inflated due to testing errors. Risk, didn't need more to rally.



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- Italy Consumer Confidence Index (Feb): 111.4 (est 111.4, prev 111.8) - Italy Manufacturing Confidence (Feb): 100.6 (est 99.4, prevR 100) - Italy Economic Sentiment (Feb): 99.8 (prev 99.2)


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Today’s hosted by . I’m out with a cold but hopefully back tomorrow


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View from within BBC about the Cummings-boycott of the Today programme in the face of the coronavirus panic is one of bafflement. Senior source, "perhaps Matt Hancock can grow a spine, break ranks and get in front of a microphone to talk through how the government is responding"


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Shares in NMC Health suspended following accounting scandal



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South Korea Confirms 171 More Coronavirus Cases, Total 1,766



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- Sweden Retail Sales (M/M) Jan: 0.9% (est 0.0%, prev 0.5%) - Sweden Retail Sales WDA (Y/Y) Jan: 2.7% (est 2.4%, prev 3.4%)




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Sweden Household Lending (Y/Y) Jan: 5.1% (prev 5%)



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- Sweden PPI (M/M) Jan: -1.0% (prev -0.5%) - Sweden PPI (Y/Y) Jan: -0.4% (prev 1.3%)



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Sweden Trade Balance (Jan): 9.9Bln (prev 0.3Bln)


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NOW: 1 new coronavirus case in Valencia, Spain



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Coronavirus cure for poorly markets: take two interest-rate cuts three times a day with food, because reasons



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- Spain CPI EU Harmonised (M/M) FebP: 0.0% (est -0.1%, prev -1.4%) - Spain CPI EU Harmonised (Y/Y) FebP: 0.9% (est 0.8%, prev 1.1%)



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- Spain CPI (M/M) FebP: -0.1% (est -0.1%, prev 1.0%) - Spain CPI (Y/Y) FebP: 0.8% (est 0.8%, prev 1.1%)



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Sweden Economic Tendency Survey (Feb): 99.1 (prev 97.1)



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Important stats... "China, getting back to work. Slowly "


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Travelling and too many numbers out: not the easiest combo! No surprises re Aston Martin rights issue, Reckitts investing back in (new CEO had to do this), Mondi/Flutter read ok. Persimmon CEO exiting stage left... Surprised re St James' Place inflows. Playtech warn on covid-19


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European Opening Calls: 6870 -2.45% 12451 -2.54% 5544 -2.47% 566 -2.74% 22818 -2.58% 9107 -2.25% 1743 -2.20% 3486 -2.56%



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Carrefour FY Earnings: -Revenue: EUR80.67B -Like For Like Sales: +3.1% -Recurring Operating Income: EUR2.09B (est EUR2.09B) -Declares Dividend Of 46C (vs 46C prev) -Sees EUR300M Of Extra Real Estate Disposals By 2022 -Raises Cost Cutting Plan To EUR2.8B (vs. EUR2.6B By End 2020)



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Bayer Q4 Earnings: Q4 Sales +3.8% To EUR10.75B Q4 Adj EBITDA: EUR2.48B Core EPS: EUR1.29 (est EUR 1.19) -Sees 2020 FX Adj EBITDA Ex-Items: EUR12.3B To EUR12.6B -Sees 2020 FX Adj Sales From Continued Operations: EUR44 To EUR45B -2020 Outlook Does Not Include Coronavirus Impact


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Good to keep in mind, just as Wednesday's session saw the S&P 500 up 50 points in the morning, only to close red, nothing says big red mornings cannot flip to green afternoons in this type of environment.


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Please be kind everyone! None of us deserve a Twitter pile on. We're off for a nice cup of tea and a sit down for a bit.


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PBoC To Cut Target RRR In Future To Help Banks


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WHO Official: Italian Virus Cases ARE Inflated Due To Testing Errors



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New Zealand prepared for "serious impact" on economy from virus -finmin - Reuter cc: Read:


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China Central Bank Vice Governor Liu Guoqiang States We Will As Far As Possible Reduce The Impact Of The Epidemic To Help Achieve Economic Goals For This Year


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China’s Industry And IT Ministry Official: Over 30% Of SMEs Have Resumed Normal Production



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Estonia Has First Confirmed Case Of Coronavirus - Tass Cites Social Affairs Minister


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Over next few days/weeks, longer chart can hold near/above blue arrow, the better. If chart moves toward orange arrow or lower, the longer it stays there, the more concerning it would become. Many charts have a similar look; this is simply ONE example to illustrate concepts.



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AB InBev Sees 1Q EBITDA Down By About 10% On COVID-19




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Safran FY Earnings: -FY Adj Recurring Operating Income: EUR3.82B (est EUR3.81B) -FY Adj Rev Organic Growth: 9.3% (vs. Goal Of 10%) -To Propose Dividend EUR: 2.38/Share -Sees 2020 Adj Recurring Operating Income Growth Around 5% -Sees 2020 Decline In Adjusted Revenue Between 0-5%



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AB InBev Q4 Earnings: -Organic Revenue: +2.5% (est +2.6%) -Adj EBITDA: -5.5% (est -1.9%) -Underlying EPS: 87C (est $1.13) -Expects 2020 EBITDA Growth Of 2-5% -Sees $285M Revenue Impact Of COVID-19 In Jan-Feb -Sees $170M EBITDA Impact Of COVID-19 In Jan-Feb



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Iraq Announces Sixth Case Of Coronavirus, A Young Iraqi Man In Baghdad Who Travelled From Iran -Health Ministry


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BoJ’s Kataoka: Don’t Believe Additional Easing Is Needed Yet Over Virus